Market Overview for WAXPUSDT as of 2025-10-14

• WAXPUSDT opened at 0.01455 and closed at 0.01417 over 24 hours, with a high of 0.01499 and low of 0.01382.
• Momentum showed a clear overbought peak around 0.01502 before reversing sharply into oversold territory below 0.0142.
• Volatility expanded through much of the session but began to contract in the final hours, hinting at potential consolidation.
• Turnover spiked during key price reversals, confirming bearish momentum but diverging with price during brief rebounds.
• A potential short-term support was tested at 0.01415–0.0142, with a bearish continuation expected if that level holds.

Opening Summary and Price Action

WAX/Tether (WAXPUSDT) opened at 0.01455 on October 13 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.01417 on October 14 at the same time. Over the 24-hour period, the pair reached a high of 0.01499 and a low of 0.01382. Total volume was 19,536,888.0 trades, with a notional turnover of approximately $276,807 (based on trade volume × average price). The price action exhibited a strong bearish bias, with an aggressive sell-off from the session’s peak into a sharp pullback toward the close.

Structure & Key Levels

Price formed a bearish broadening top pattern between 0.01499 and 0.01420, with key resistance levels forming at 0.01502 and 0.01506. A major support level was retested multiple times around 0.01415–0.0142, with a bearish engulfing pattern appearing at the 0.01443–0.01409 reversal. A potential support zone at 0.01392–0.01403 may be next in line if the bearish trend continues.

Indicators and Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed lower into bearish territory, confirming the trend. MACD showed a bearish crossover and negative divergence as price bounced from lower levels. RSI pushed into overbought territory above 70 multiple times but failed to hold above 60, suggesting momentum exhaustion. The 15-minute RSI also showed bearish divergence with price, with key reversals occurring when RSI crossed back below 50.

Bollinger Bands reflected a sharp expansion during the first half of the session and a contraction in the final hours, suggesting a potential consolidation period ahead.

Volume and Turnover Behavior

Volume spiked during major price reversals, especially between 0.01502 and 0.01498, confirming bearish momentum. The most significant volume occurred around the 0.01499–0.01495 range, with a large-volume bearish engulfing pattern confirming a shift in sentiment. Notional turnover aligned with these volume surges, peaking at $15,000 in the 2025-1013 194500 candle.

However, in the final hours, volume began to decline while price tested the 0.01415–0.01420 range. This suggests a possible exhaustion of sellers, though not enough to confirm a reversal at this stage.

Fibonacci and Retracement Levels

A key Fibonacci retracement level at 0.01420–0.01425 aligned with the 61.8% retracement of the move from 0.01382 to 0.01499. This level held briefly before a further pullback to 0.01392. The 38.2% retracement at 0.01442 was tested and broken during the consolidation phase, suggesting the bearish trend remains intact.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong bearish momentum and overbought conditions observed in the RSI and MACD, a short-term bearish backtest strategy could be built around RSI > 70 as a short entry trigger. The challenge lies in defining an appropriate exit rule given the limitations of a daily-level backtest. If we assume that a short position is entered at the close of a day in which RSI(15) > 70 and exited at the next day’s close, the performance would approximate a daily RSI > 70 sell strategy.

Alternatively, if we refine the exit to a 15-minute bar where RSI falls below 50 (a bearish reversal signal), the strategy could potentially capture short-term bearish moves more precisely, though this would require access to intraday backtesting. For now, a daily-level backtest would still provide a useful approximation of the strategy’s viability in this market context.