Market Overview for WAX/Tether (WAXPUSDT) - October 7, 2025

• WAXPUSDT opened at $0.01807 and traded between $0.01715 and $0.01821, closing at $0.01724.
• Price declined sharply after reaching a 24-hour high at $0.01821, with bearish momentum picking up in the latter half.
• Volume surged late in the session, particularly in the 15:15–16:00 ET timeframe, as price dropped below key support levels.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish divergence with price after 17:00 ET, reinforcing downward bias.
• Bollinger Bands widened toward session end, indicating rising volatility amid strong selling pressure.

At 12:00 ET–1 on October 6, 2025, WAXPUSDT opened at $0.01807, reaching a high of $0.01821 and a low of $0.01715 before closing at $0.01724. The 24-hour session saw a total volume of 14,804,419.0 WAX and a notional turnover of approximately $262,000. The pair has shown strong bearish bias, with price dropping below key Fibonacci retracement levels and testing multiple support zones. A bearish engulfing pattern formed near $0.01805–0.01807, while a series of lower lows and bearish momentum in the RSI and MACD confirmed the downward bias.

Structure & Formations

Price broke below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.01785 and the 61.8% level at $0.01754, reaching as low as $0.01715. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at $0.01805–0.01807, signaling a potential reversal from a prior bullish move. A morning doji at $0.01803 and a late bearish reversal candle at $0.0172–0.01724 added to the bearish narrative. Price found temporary support at $0.01738, but failed to hold, suggesting the key support may now lie near $0.01715 or below.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA in the final hours, forming a death cross. The 50-period MA at ~$0.01760 acted as a short-term resistance, which was repeatedly tested and failed. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits near $0.01810, the 100-period MA at ~$0.01815, and the 200-period MA at $0.01820. All lines are bearish sloping, with price now trading well below all three. These averages reinforce the bearish trend and suggest further downside potential.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative in the late session, with the histogram expanding below zero as bearish momentum intensified. A bearish crossover occurred at ~$0.01755. The RSI dropped from ~55 to ~30, entering oversold territory, but without a rebound in price or volume. This divergence between RSI and price action suggests that sellers are still in control and that the oversold condition may not be a reliable buy signal. Momentum is firmly bearish.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion in the last two hours of the session, with the lower band tightening and then flaring out as price collapsed. The bands were widest between $0.01715 and $0.01738, with price hovering near the lower band, suggesting heightened volatility and a continuation of the bearish trend. A rebound above the 20-period EMA at ~$0.01760 could trigger a retest of the middle band, but this appears unlikely without a reversal in momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased significantly in the final hours, with the largest 15-minute candle (15:15–16:00 ET) recording ~2.1 million WAX traded and a turnover of ~$37,000. This surge came as price fell below $0.01750, indicating strong bearish conviction. Turnover and volume moved in tandem, confirming the strength of the move. A divergence between volume and price did not emerge, but the late spike in turnover suggests increased selling pressure and liquidity exhaustion.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the move from $0.01801 to $0.01821 was followed by a sharp retrace to $0.01715, hitting key Fibonacci levels at 61.8% (~$0.01754) and 78.6% (~$0.01728). On the daily chart, the 2025–2026 low-to-high range has a 61.8% retracement near $0.01715–0.01720, where the current price resides. This area could offer temporary support or trigger a continuation of the downward trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Applying a backtest strategy that triggers long entries on bullish engulfing patterns and RSI crossovers above 30, while shorting on bearish engulfing patterns and RSI below 70, would likely have captured most of the bearish move in this session. A short trade initiated at the bearish engulfing pattern near $0.01805 with a stop above $0.01808 and a target at $0.01785 would have been stopped out or held through the major drop to $0.01715. For a more refined strategy, incorporating volume confirmation or Bollinger Band breakouts could help filter out false signals and improve risk-adjusted returns.