Market Overview for WAX/Tether (WAXPUSDT) — October 10, 2025

• WAXPUSDT formed a bullish reversal pattern after falling to a 24-hour low of $0.01666, with a 1.2% bounce by 12:00 ET.
• Strong volume spikes and a 50-period crossover on the 15-min chart suggest short-term momentum.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory, while MACD crossed into positive territory, signaling possible near-term recovery.
• Volatility expanded as price traded within a widening Bollinger Band envelope.
• On-chain volume reached $1.72M, showing increased interest despite a late-day pullback.

WAXPUSDT opened at $0.01708 on October 9 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.01763 before closing at $0.01684 as of October 10 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 10.63 million WAX, with a notional turnover of approximately $1.72 million. Price formed a double-bottom pattern near $0.01666 and showed mixed momentum across the session.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a strong bearish breakdown early in the session, forming a key support level near $0.01694. A bullish hammer pattern emerged after the 23:45 ET candle, followed by a bullish engulfing pattern from 00:15 to 00:30 ET. However, the market retraced much of the morning gains in the final hours, ending with a long bearish candle near session close. A notable doji formed at 03:15 ET, signaling indecision and potential trend reversal. The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the $0.01763 high to the $0.01666 low sits at $0.01686, aligning with the final session close. Traders may watch this level as a potential near-term floor.

Moving Averages

The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed above the 50-period line just before 04:00 ET, indicating a short-term bullish signal. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average remains above the 100 and 200-period lines, suggesting a longer-term bearish bias. The price closed below all three daily MAs, reinforcing a defensive posture in the near term. Traders should be cautious about relying on short-term bullish signals without confirmation from higher timeframes.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned positive by 03:00 ET, with the signal line crossing below it, suggesting potential short-term bullish momentum. RSI hit oversold territory at 04:45 ET, reaching a low of 28, and recovered to 50 by 06:00 ET, hinting at potential reversal. However, the late-day selloff pushed RSI back below 50, with a closing value of 37, indicating ongoing bearish pressure. The divergence between bullish MACD and bearish RSI may point to a possible false breakout unless volume confirms a breakout.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded through the session, with Bollinger Bands widening as the price moved between $0.01666 and $0.01763. The final 15-minute candle closed near the lower band, suggesting a potential rebound. A contraction in the bands occurred at 02:45 ET, followed by a breakout to the upside. The current price sits near the middle band, with the lower band acting as a key support zone. If the price holds above the lower band, a consolidation phase may follow.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume peaked at 480,416 WAX around 10:45 ET and again at 14:00 ET, coinciding with key price swings. Notional turnover was highest during the late morning and early afternoon, aligning with the formation of the double-bottom and early breakout. Volume diverged from price action during the late-hour selloff, with a 161,958 WAX candle at 15:00 ET closing near the low despite significant volume. This divergence suggests weak conviction in the bearish move and potential for a bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

The most significant Fibonacci level for the 24-hour swing was the 0.618 retracement at $0.01686, which closely aligned with the final session close. Earlier, the 0.382 retracement level at $0.01709 held briefly before the price broke through with a strong bullish candle. On the daily chart, the 0.618 retracement from the previous week’s high at $0.0180 to the low at $0.0160 sits at $0.01676, close to the current price. Traders may watch this level for potential support or rejection.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy outlined is a trend-following approach using a combination of the 20/50-period moving average crossover, RSI oversold signals, and volume confirmation. The hypothesis assumes that when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart and RSI falls below 30, followed by a volume increase of more than 1.5 standard deviations above the 20-period average, the setup may indicate a high-probability long entry. This aligns with the observed patterns during the session, particularly the bullish engulfing and the late morning RSI oversold bounce. However, the bearish divergence in the final hours suggests that the strategy should include a stop-loss near the 0.618 Fibonacci level at $0.01686 to manage risk.