Market Overview: WAX/Tether (WAXPUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis

• Price drifted lower on elevated volume, testing key support.
• Momentum indicators signal bearish exhaustion near 0.0119.
• Bollinger Bands constrict as volatility declines amid consolidation.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-11-10, WAXPUSDT opened at 0.01223, peaked at 0.01235, and closed at 0.01212 after hitting a low of 0.01177. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 29,295,863.0 WAX, with a notional turnover of $3,546,012.86. The pair appears to be consolidating near a critical support cluster between 0.0119 and 0.0120.

Over the past 24 hours, price action has shown a bearish trend punctuated by a sharp decline from 0.01234 to 0.01177 on heavy volume, suggesting selling pressure. The formation of a bearish engulfing pattern around 0.01214–0.01195 and a bearish inside bar at 0.01209–0.01201 highlight potential short-term weakness. Key support levels identified include 0.01195 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the previous bullish swing) and 0.01185 (Fibonacci 78.6%), which could become pivotal in the near term.

The 20-period EMA at 0.01216 and the 50-period EMA at 0.01220 indicate a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward bias. RSI has dipped below 30, signaling oversold conditions, while MACD remains in negative territory with a bearish crossover, suggesting that momentum is favoring the bears for the time being. Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Bands, has tightened, indicating a potential prelude to a breakout or a continuation of consolidation.

Volume has been relatively elevated during the bearish phases, especially during the drop from 0.01234 to 0.01177, but has since decreased, indicating reduced conviction in the current trend. A divergence between price and volume during the decline suggests that further downside may face resistance from buyers. However, if price continues to breach the 0.01195 support level, a test of the 0.01185 level may follow.

Backtest Hypothesis: A potential strategy to explore would involve entering short positions on WAXPUSDT when a bearish MACD death cross (i.e., signal line crosses below the MACD line) occurs below a key Fibonacci level (e.g., 61.8% retracement or 78.6%). Stops could be placed above a recent swing high, with a target set to 78.6% or beyond. This approach would align with current bearish momentum and key technical levels identified in the 15-minute and daily charts. Given the current MACD signal, and the price hovering near 0.01195, a backtest of this strategy since 2022-01-01 could provide further insight into its potential efficacy.