Market Overview for WAX/Tether (WAXPUSDT) – 2025-10-04

• WAX/Tether (WAXPUSDT) traded in a 24-hour range between $0.01745 and $0.01835, closing near the lower end at $0.01746
• Price action shows bearish momentum with RSI nearing oversold territory and Bollinger Bands tightening
• Daily volume spiked during the early hours but has since declined, showing weak conviction behind price moves
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near $0.01810, suggesting further downside potential into key support at $0.01760
• Divergence between volume and price highlights caution, with declining turnover as prices fall

At 12:00 ET on October 3, 2025, WAX/Tether (WAXPUSDT) opened at $0.01809. Over the next 24 hours, the pair traded as high as $0.01835 and as low as $0.01745 before closing at $0.01746. Total traded volume reached 5,172,364.0 with a notional turnover of approximately $94,497.51.

The price action reveals a strong bearish bias over the past 24 hours, supported by key candlestick formations. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around $0.01810, followed by a series of lower closes. Notably, the price failed to reclaim critical resistance levels at $0.01820 and $0.01835, reinforcing a breakdown scenario. Daily support levels to watch include $0.01760 and $0.01745, both of which align with prior swing lows and Fibonacci retracement levels.

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remain in a descending alignment, suggesting short-term bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMA stack is also bearish, with price testing the 50 EMA as a dynamic resistance. MACD has moved into negative territory, confirming a downward trend, while RSI approaches the oversold threshold near 30, signaling potential for a short-term rebound or exhaustion of the current bear move. Bollinger Bands have narrowed during the latter half of the session, hinting at a potential volatility expansion and breakout attempt.

Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high at $0.01835 to the low at $0.01745 indicate key psychological levels. The 38.2% retracement at $0.01795 and the 61.8% at $0.01765 have already been tested multiple times. A close below $0.01765 could signal the next major target at $0.01745, where a potential double-bottom formation may begin to take shape.

Backtest Hypothesis
The bearish engulfing pattern near $0.01810 and the subsequent breakdown below key moving averages suggest a continuation of the downward trend. A backtest strategy could be constructed around a short entry on a close below $0.01760, with a stop just above $0.01780 and a first target at $0.01745. A second target may be placed at $0.01730 if Fibonacci levels align. This approach would use a 50-period EMA as confirmation and wait for RSI to enter oversold territory before entering. The strategy would aim to capture the continuation of a bearish trend confirmed by both price action and momentum indicators.