Market Overview for WAX/Tether (WAXPUSDT): 2025-10-03

• WAXPUSDT rose from $0.0177 to $0.0181, forming a bullish breakout pattern with strong volume support in late ET hours.
• Price retracted near $0.01803–0.01808 during early trading hours, indicating key resistance and consolidation.
• MACD and RSI showed early bullish momentum, followed by divergence during the consolidation phase.
• Volatility spiked during the upward push but flattened as price settled near the upper Bollinger Band.
• Turnover increased significantly near $0.01803–0.01809, signaling potential resistance in the next 24 hours.

24-Hour Price Summary

WAXPUSDT opened at $0.0177 (12:00 ET–1) and reached a high of $0.01818 before closing at $0.01793 (12:00 ET). Total volume for the 24-hour period was 14,758,900 units, with notional turnover reaching $258,872. Price action showed a strong bearish reversal in the early morning followed by a retest of key resistance levels.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a strong bullish engulfing pattern around 19:30–20:00 ET, followed by a bearish divergence in the 04:00–06:00 ET window. A key resistance zone was identified between $0.01803–0.01809, where multiple candlesticks failed to close above. A strong support level appears to be forming near $0.01789–0.01793, which price tested multiple times during the consolidation phase.

Moving Averages and MACD

Short-term bullish momentum was confirmed by the 20 and 50-period EMA lines crossing above price during the late ET hours. However, the MACD histogram peaked near $0.01809 and began to contract as price pulled back. This suggests weakening momentum and potential exhaustion near the upper resistance. The RSI approached overbought territory at 68 during the push, but failed to stay above it, indicating a possible bearish correction.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Volatility expanded during the breakout phase, with price reaching the upper Bollinger Band at $0.01809 before retracting into the middle band during early trading. The contraction of the bands in the 03:00–05:00 ET period indicated a potential breakout or breakdown, which was ultimately fulfilled in the bullish direction. Price remains within the bands but faces a test at the upper boundary.

Volume and Turnover

The highest notional turnover occurred between 19:30–20:00 ET and again between 00:30–02:00 ET. Price failed to close above $0.01809 during the second peak, indicating a divergence between volume and price. This suggests that buyers may be losing control. Conversely, turnover was lower during the consolidation phase, indicating reduced participation and uncertainty.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 19:30–02:00 ET move, price retested the 61.8% retracement level at $0.01803, which coincided with a cluster of resistance. This suggests a high probability of further correction. The 38.2% retracement at $0.01794 appears to be a temporary support zone. If the price breaks below the 23.6% level at $0.01785, it could signal a deeper pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy relies on key breakout levels and divergence in the RSI and MACD to identify potential reversals. In this 24-hour period, a long entry at $0.01794, following the 61.8% retracement and a bullish candle, could have captured the upward move toward $0.01809. A stop-loss at $0.01785 and a target at $0.01815 would have aligned with the Fibonacci and moving average analysis. The RSI divergence during the consolidation phase also supports a short entry at $0.01809 with a target at $0.01793 and a stop above $0.01815, making the strategy well-aligned with observed price behavior.