Market Overview for WAX/Tether USDt (WAXPUSDT) on 2025-09-11

• WAXPUSDT traded in a narrow range early but broke higher after 01:00 ET with a 1.25% rally to 0.0205.
• Volatility surged in the early morning with a 0.02036 to 0.0205 high, suggesting potential bullish momentum.
• Late afternoon sell-off dragged price below 0.02015, ending near 0.01999 with bearish divergence in volume.
• RSI approached overbought during the morning high and oversold during the afternoon dip, indicating divergent momentum.
• Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion during the breakout and contraction during the late sell-off.

WAXPUSDT opened at 0.02022 on 2025-09-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.01999 on 2025-09-11 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 0.0205 and a low of 0.01991 during the 24-hour period. Total volume was 16,038,528 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $320,356 (assuming $1 = 1 USDT).

Structure & Formations

Price action on WAXPUSDT reflected a bullish breakout above key resistance near 0.02035 during early morning hours, followed by a sharp bearish pullback late afternoon. A strong candle with a long upper shadow formed at 0.0205, signaling rejection at the level. Later, a bearish engulfing pattern occurred around 14:45 ET, confirming short-term bearish bias. A potential support zone appears around 0.02012–0.02015, which has been tested and held multiple times.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed into bullish territory during the early morning breakout, reinforcing the initial surge. However, the 50-period MA has since turned lower, suggesting a pullback. On a daily timeframe, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs are all aligned in a bullish configuration, with the 200 MA acting as a strong support at ~0.0199.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a strong bullish crossover early in the session, coinciding with the price breakout above 0.02035. However, the histogram peaked and diverged with price after the late afternoon sell-off. RSI reached overbought territory (above 70) during the morning high and then dropped sharply below 30, suggesting oversold conditions by the end of the session. This divergence implies the market may be due for a short-term bounce, though bearish momentum remains in the short term.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands experienced a moderate expansion during the morning rally, with price breaking above the upper band at 0.0205. This was followed by a contraction during the late afternoon sell-off, with price closing near the lower band at 0.01999. The retest of the lower band and the bearish engulfing pattern suggest a potential continuation of the downward move, though a rebound from this level cannot be ruled out.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the early morning rally, with large-volume candles forming above 0.0203. However, volume significantly declined during the afternoon sell-off, despite a large price move, suggesting waning buying pressure. Notional turnover was highest during the initial rally, confirming the move, but diverged during the afternoon decline. This divergence raises the possibility of a shallow pullback or consolidation before further directional movement.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent swing high at 0.0205 and low at 0.01999, key levels include 0.02024 (38.2%) and 0.02011 (61.8%). The 61.8% level has been a critical point of support during the afternoon sell-off. A break below this level could signal a deeper correction toward 0.0199, while a retest of 0.02024 could offer a short-term bullish catalyst.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on WAXPUSDT at the 61.8% Fibonacci level (0.02011) with a stop loss just below the recent intraday low at 0.01991 and a target near the 38.2% retracement at 0.02024. This approach leverages the strong support behavior observed at 0.02011 and the potential for a short-term bounce. The morning MACD and RSI divergence could also be used as early confirmation signals for the strategy. Given the recent volatility and divergence in volume, this setup offers a balanced risk-reward ratio and is suitable for tactical traders.