Market Overview for Walrus/USDC (WALUSDC) – October 22, 2025

• Walrus/USDC declined from 0.2679 to a 24-hour low of 0.2341, forming a bearish trend with strong momentum.
• Volume surged in early hours, peaking at 3.02 million tokens traded, but later faded as prices consolidated.
• RSI and MACD suggested overbought conditions turned bearish, with a shift toward negative momentum.
• Bollinger Bands showed price nearing the lower band, signaling increased bearish pressure and low volatility.
• Key support at 0.235 was tested, with intraday activity hinting at potential consolidation or a short-term rebound.

The Walrus/USDC (WALUSDC) pair opened at 0.2569 and reached a high of 0.2679 before declining to a low of 0.2341 and closing at 0.2391 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 28.27 million tokens, with turnover reaching 6,745,690 USDC. Price action showed a bearish bias, with several intraday bearish patterns and momentum indicators confirming a weakening trend.

The daily chart shows a clear bearish bias with prices falling well below key moving averages. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both crossed below the price, reinforcing the downward trajectory. A 50-period EMA on the daily chart has acted as resistance, with prices failing to reclaim even the mid-2025 range. This suggests that short-term buyers are struggling to defend previous highs.

MACD lines turned negative around the 16:00 ET window, indicating a shift in momentum toward the bearish side. The RSI has been in oversold territory multiple times during the session, but bearish pressures remain intact. While occasional attempts at short-term rebounds occurred, such as the 0.2391 close, the overall trend remains bearish. Bollinger Bands showed a tightening contraction in the early part of the session followed by a sharp expansion, indicating a potential breakout to the downside.

On the 15-minute chart, the price has remained within the lower band of the Bollinger Bands for most of the session, signaling weak volatility and bearish bias. The 0.235 level has emerged as a significant support level, having been tested multiple times. A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the 0.2679 high sits at 0.2546, which has already been broken. The 61.8% level at 0.2423 has also failed as a short-term floor, indicating a continuation of the downward move.

Backtest Hypothesis
To evaluate a potential trading strategy on Walrus/USDC, a rules-based backtest requires two key clarifications: 1) the RSI oversold threshold (e.g., RSI(14) < 30 or < 20), and 2) the precise condition for exiting a trade once support at 0.235 is tested (e.g., a close below the level, an intraday break, or a tolerance window). These parameters are essential for generating precise buy and sell signals, particularly in a market where short-term volatility can obscure trend signals. The strategy could leverage RSI divergence and volume confirmation to refine entry points, while using the 0.235 level as a defined exit.