Market Overview for Walrus/USDC (WALUSDC) on 2025-11-05

Summary
• Walrus/USDC opened at 0.2155, reached a high of 0.2156, and closed at 0.2120 with a low of 0.1952.
• Total volume for the 24-hour period was 15.8 million USDC, with a total turnover of approximately 3.38 million USD.
• A sharp decline from 0.2156 to 0.1979 in the early hours of 12:00 ET-1 highlights bearish momentum.

The Walrus/USDC (WALUSDC) pair saw a volatile 24-hour session, starting at 0.2155 at 12:00 ET-1, peaking at 0.2156, and dropping as low as 0.1952 before closing at 0.2120 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-05. Total volume for the period was 15.8 million USDC, translating to approximately 3.38 million USD in turnover, with significant sell pressure emerging during the early morning hours.

Structure and price behavior suggest key support levels formed around 0.2050–0.2080 and 0.2030–0.2060, as price has rebounded multiple times from these levels over the 24-hour period. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed around 0.2082–0.2052, signaling a potential short-term reversal in bullish momentum. Additionally, a doji at 0.2037 suggests indecision at lower levels, potentially hinting at an equilibrium before further movement.

Moving averages for the 15-minute chart (20/50) were bearish, with the 50-period line cutting below the 20-period line, indicating a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average crossed above the 100-period line, showing a potential early bullish bias at the longer time frame. The price remains below the 200-period line, suggesting longer-term bearish sentiment.

MACD lines turned negative throughout the session, reflecting diminishing bullish momentum, while the histogram displayed a broadening bearish divergence. RSI dropped to oversold territory at 28, suggesting a potential short-term bounce. Bollinger Bands widened during the early morning decline, indicating high volatility. Price later retracted back toward the middle band, showing some consolidation, though a clear break above the upper band would require stronger conviction.

Volume and turnover spiked during the early morning hours, particularly in the 0.2100–0.1979 range, coinciding with sharp price declines. A divergence between price and volume was noted as price recovered to 0.2089–0.2117 with relatively lower volume, suggesting weaker conviction in the bounce.

Fibonacci retracements from the 0.2156 high to the 0.1952 low highlight 38.2% at 0.2060 and 61.8% at 0.2008 as critical levels. Price tested the 61.8% level multiple times, with mixed outcomes. On the 15-minute chart, retracement levels at 0.2120–0.2150 appear to be forming near-term resistance, with a potential retest expected.

Backtest Hypothesis
The backtest strategy described focuses on RSI-oversold conditions and bearish engulfing candlestick patterns as potential entry points for short-term bearish positions. Given the observed RSI dip into oversold territory and the bearish engulfing pattern around 0.2082–0.2052, the backtest would likely have triggered a short signal at that point. However, the subsequent price rebound and limited bearish continuation suggest the strategy may require tighter stop-loss criteria or confirmation via volume. A higher volume divergence during the bounce also implies caution—without further sell-through of key support levels, the strategy may yield false signals.