Market Overview for Walrus/USDC (WALUSDC) on 2025-10-28

• Walrus/USDC traded in a consolidating pattern, with price dropping from 0.2468 to 0.2345 over 24 hours.
• Key support levels tested around 0.2340–0.2350, with bearish momentum evident in RSI and MACD.
• Volatility expanded during sharp declines between 19:45 and 20:15 ET, suggesting increased bear pressure.
• Volume surged in the early part of the day before declining, reflecting a loss of buyer conviction.
• Price remains below both the 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart.

24-Hour Price Action

Walrus/USDC opened at 0.2409 on October 27 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of 0.2468 before closing at 0.2345 by 12:00 ET on October 28. The 24-hour trading window saw a total volume of approximately 1.25 million tokens and a notional turnover of around $316,000. The price declined in a series of bearish trends, especially after a peak at 0.2468, forming a bearish continuation pattern.

The structure of the 15-minute candles showed a mix of inside bars and bearish engulfing patterns, particularly from 19:45 to 20:15 ET, where price dropped nearly 1.5% on increased volume. This suggests a shift in sentiment and a potential exhaustion of short-term buyers.

Support and Resistance

Support levels were tested in the range of 0.2340–0.2350 as price approached the lower end of its 24-hour range. A bearish pinocchio candle formed around 0.2350, reinforcing the idea that sellers may be stepping in more forcefully. Resistance levels were previously active in the 0.2400–0.2440 zone, but these failed to hold against increasing bear pressure.

A significant swing low occurred at 0.2345, with potential for a continuation pattern if price fails to retest these levels in the near term.

Moving Averages and Trend Direction

On the 15-minute chart, Walrus/USDC remained below both the 20- and 50-period moving averages, indicating a bearish bias. The 20-period MA dipped slightly from 0.2425 to 0.2390, while the 50-period MA declined from 0.2430 to 0.2380, confirming a weakening trend.

On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is positioned around 0.2410, and the 200-period MA sits at 0.2395. A retest of the 50-period MA could signal potential for a short-term bounce, but a close below the 200-period MA would likely confirm a deeper correction.

Momentum and Volatility

The RSI crossed below the 30 level, indicating oversold conditions, but divergence between price and RSI suggests that bearish momentum may persist. MACD lines showed a strong bearish crossover, with the histogram shrinking slowly as the downward move progressed.

Bollinger Bands widened significantly during the drop from 0.2468 to 0.2345, reflecting increased volatility. Price currently sits near the lower band, suggesting potential for a bounce or a continuation of the bearish trend if sellers remain aggressive.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.2468 to 0.2345, key levels include:
- 38.2% at ~0.2399
- 50% at ~0.2407
- 61.8% at ~0.2415

Price appears to have found temporary resistance at the 50% level, suggesting that a retest of this area could confirm whether buyers are willing to step in. A move beyond the 61.8% level would be required for a bullish reversal signal, but this seems unlikely given current momentum.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Volume spiked to ~188k tokens during the early phase of the bearish breakdown, confirming the move. However, the volume tailed off as price continued to fall, suggesting a lack of conviction among buyers. The notional turnover also declined, indicating reduced participation in the market.

A divergence between price and volume was observed during the last two hours of the 24-hour period, where price continued to fall despite lower volume, pointing to possible exhaustion among bears.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish momentum and the failure of key resistance levels, a backtesting strategy could focus on short-term bearish signals. A potential approach would involve using the MACD death cross to identify short opportunities, combined with RSI oversold levels to avoid late-stage corrections.

The strategy would enter a short position when the 12-period MACD line crosses below the 26-period signal line, and the RSI confirms bearish momentum by staying below 50. The stop-loss would be placed above the nearest Fibonacci level (e.g., 50% at ~0.2407), while the take-profit would aim for the next Fibonacci level down (e.g., 38.2% at ~0.2399).

However, due to the recent volatility and potential for a short-term bounce, this strategy should be tested over a broader time horizon and across multiple assets to account for false signals.