Market Overview for VulcanForged/Bitcoin (PYRBTC)

Summary
• Price declined from 5.11e-06 to 4.87e-06, with a bearish momentum trend.
• Volume surged during the 20:30–20:45 ET session, confirming downward pressure.
• A 61.8% Fibonacci level at 4.92e-06 acted as a temporary support.

The VulcanForged/Bitcoin (PYRBTC) pair opened at 5.11e-06 at 12:00 ET-1 and reached a high of 5.11e-06 before declining to a 24-hour low of 4.82e-06 and closing at 4.87e-06 as of 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 138,470.529, while notional turnover reached approximately 0.685 BTC (based on weighted average pricing).

On the 15-minute chart, a bearish trend is evident, with the price falling below the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating short-term weakness. The MACD showed bearish divergence, with the histogram narrowing and crossing below the signal line. RSI (not fully accessible for real-time backtesting) appears to have entered oversold territory, suggesting potential for a near-term rebound if buyers emerge.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a descending channel with a key resistance around 5.03e-06 and a support level at 4.92e-06. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible around 20:30 ET as the candle closed significantly lower than its open, confirming bearish sentiment. A doji appeared around 00:45 ET, signaling indecision in the market.

Moving Averages

On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 4.99e-06, while the 200-period MA rests near 4.95e-06. Short-term bearish alignment is clear as the 50 MA is below the 200 MA, suggesting a broader downtrend. The 15-minute chart shows both 20 and 50-period MAs trending downward, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded, with the bands widening over the last 12 hours. Price has spent most of the session near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions. A potential bounce from this area may occur, but without a surge in volume or a reversal candle, a continuation lower is likely.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 20:30–20:45 ET session, confirming the bearish break below 4.92e-06. However, recent price declines have not been matched by rising volume, suggesting the bearish momentum may be waning slightly. Turnover remained moderate, with no significant divergence observed between price and turnover.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 61.8% Fibonacci level at 4.92e-06 provided a temporary support, but price failed to hold there and broke down further. The next key level of support is at 4.82e-06, which aligns with the most recent low. On the 15-minute chart, a minor retracement level at 4.87e-06 appears to have capped the move lower for a brief period.

Backtest Hypothesis

To better assess PYRBTC's behavior under RSI-driven conditions, a backtest strategy is required. As the current system does not recognize PYRBTC, confirmation is needed on either the correct symbol format (e.g., BINANCE:PYRBTC) or an alternative trading pair to use for testing. Once the correct symbol is confirmed, a RSI-based strategy (e.g., RSI below 30 to buy, above 70 to sell) can be backtested from January 1, 2022, to today, to evaluate its effectiveness in capturing trend shifts and momentum swings. This approach could then be cross-referenced with the observed volatility and Fibonacci levels for refined entry/exit timing.