Market Overview for VulcanForged/Bitcoin (PYRBTC)

• Price declined sharply from $7.74e-6 to $2.31e-6 in midday hours before rebounding to $6.77e-6 by market close.
• Notable volume spikes occurred during the sell-off, particularly at 21:15 ET and 21:30 ET.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions after the dip, while MACD turned bullish late in the session.
• Bollinger Bands show a wide expansion during the decline, followed by consolidation.
• Fibonacci levels suggest a potential near-term ceiling at ~$6.86e-6 and support at ~$6.36e-6.

PYRBTC opened at $7.70e-6 (12:00 ET – 1) and reached a high of $7.74e-6 and a low of $2.01e-6 before closing at $6.77e-6 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-11. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 147,757.53 BTC-equivalent, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,034.04 (assuming a $7,000 BTC price). The asset displayed significant intraday volatility and sharp corrections midday.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a key support level at $6.81e-6, which held during late afternoon trading, preventing a further decline. Between 21:15 ET and 21:30 ET, PYRBTC saw massive volume spikes coinciding with a dramatic drop from $7.51e-6 to $2.31e-6. This formed a deep bearish impulse, followed by a gradual rebound. A bearish engulfing pattern was visible at 21:30 ET, signaling a strong sell-off. Later in the session, a bullish hammer near the $6.70e-6 level suggested a potential short-term bottom.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed below the price during the midday sell-off, confirming a bearish shift. By late afternoon, the 50-period MA showed signs of stabilizing, aligning with a potential trend reversal. The daily chart showed the 50-period MA holding above the 100-period MA, indicating a longer-term bullish bias remains intact.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative midday with a large bearish histogram, reflecting strong downward momentum. By the end of the session, however, it began to show a bullish divergence as the price stabilized while the MACD line began to rise. The RSI dipped below 30 during the sell-off, indicating oversold conditions, and recovered to 46 by the close, suggesting a possible bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands displayed a sharp expansion during the midday selloff, with the price breaking below the lower band at $2.31e-6. This volatility contraction had been observed earlier in the morning when the bands were tight, signaling a potential breakout. As price re-entered the bands in the late session, it moved closer to the upper band at $6.77e-6, indicating a possible continuation of the rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp decline, especially at 21:15 ET (4,648 BTC-equivalent) and 21:30 ET (17,127 BTC-equivalent), coinciding with the lowest price of the day. However, this was followed by a period of low volume as the price rebounded, suggesting a lack of follow-through bearish sentiment. Turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with a large notional sell-off early in the decline and a more muted rally afterward.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the major swing low ($2.31e-6) and high ($7.74e-6), the 61.8% level (~$6.86e-6) and 38.2% level (~$6.36e-6) are key near-term targets. Price closed near the 50% retracement level, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. On the 15-minute chart, retracements from the intra-day highs showed a 50% level near $7.02e-6, which acted as resistance during the afternoon.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves a mean-reversion approach using the RSI and Bollinger Bands. Specifically, a long signal is generated when the RSI crosses below 30 and the price closes below the lower Bollinger Band, followed by a close above the middle band with increasing volume. A short signal is triggered when RSI crosses above 70 and the price closes above the upper band, followed by a close below the middle band and declining volume. Given the current price behavior and recent RSI oversold reading, the strategy may suggest a long entry near $6.70e-6 with a stop loss near $6.45e-6 and a target near $6.86e-6. This aligns with the observed Fibonacci and support levels, potentially enhancing the trade setup's robustness.