Market Overview for VulcanForged/Bitcoin (PYRBTC)

• Price declined from $1.019e-05 to $9.73e-06, closing near 24-hour lows.
• High volatility observed in afternoon ET with a sharp pullback.
• Volume spiked during bearish reversal phases; turnover confirmed price weakness.
• No major bullish momentum indicators appeared during the 24-hour period.
• RSI reached oversold territory near the close, hinting at short-term exhaustion.

The pair opened at $1.013e-05 at 12:00 ET-1 and dropped to a low of $9.73e-06 by the close at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was between $1.019e-05 and $9.73e-06. Total trading volume reached 19,642.46, and notional turnover was $1.93.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a distinct bearish trend throughout the day, with multiple bearish engulfing patterns forming after an initial bullish push in the early hours. A significant bearish reversal occurred between 17:15 and 17:45 ET, where price fell from $1.008e-05 to $9.97e-05. A doji formed at 19:45 ET, indicating indecision at the lower end of the range, followed by a retest of the daily low in the afternoon. Key support levels emerged at $9.96e-05 and $9.85e-06, where the price found temporary bids.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA were both trending downward, with price closing below both, confirming bearish momentum. On the daily timeframe, the 50DMA was breached during the morning hours, aligning with the 200DMA as potential resistance if the pair rebounds. The 100DMA acted as a minor support level but failed to hold, with volume thinning after 18:00 ET.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line remained below the signal line for most of the 24-hour period, with a bearish crossover confirmed at 17:15 ET. RSI dropped to 29 by the close, indicating potential oversold conditions, though a reversal is unlikely without a strong bullish volume spike. The oscillator showed bearish divergence in the late hours of the day, reinforcing the likelihood of further downward movement.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the midday hours as price broke below the lower band at 17:30 ET. By the end of the day, price remained within the bands but near the lower boundary, suggesting a consolidation phase may be forming at the 24-hour low. The contraction phase observed between 22:00 and 23:30 ET hinted at a potential breakout, which was ultimately bearish.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was concentrated in the bearish hours between 17:15 and 20:30 ET, with a massive 5,644.36 volume recorded at 23:30 ET, supporting a sharp drop to $1.024e-05. Turnover spiked during the same period, confirming bearish sentiment. Divergence occurred between 03:00 and 05:00 ET, where price rebounded slightly but with minimal volume, suggesting the rally lacked conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 15-minute swing from $1.019e-05 to $9.96e-05, price found a temporary bounce near the 61.8% level at $1.005e-05. Daily-level retracement levels showed bearish continuation at the 38.2% level ($1.011e-05) being tested twice, both times with rejection. The 61.8% daily level at $1.003e-05 is now key if the pair bounces in the coming days.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could be built around detecting bearish engulfing patterns on the 15-minute chart, particularly after a failed attempt to break above a recent resistance level. Using the 20SMA as a confirmation filter, a sell entry would be triggered upon a close below the pattern’s low, with a stop just above the pattern’s high. A target could be set at the next Fibonacci or Bollinger support level. Given today’s volume and MACD divergence, this strategy might have yielded favorable risk-to-reward ratios, especially if combined with RSI readings in oversold territory to avoid early exits.