Market Overview for VulcanForged/Bitcoin (PYRBTC)

• Price opened at $0.0000088, declined to $0.00000852, and closed near $0.00000865, indicating bearish pressure.
• A key 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern formed at $0.00000869–$0.00000852, signaling possible short-term bear momentum.
• High-volume bearish breakdown below $0.0000087 confirms a potential short-term support level at $0.0000086–$0.00000865.
• RSI entered oversold territory at 29, hinting at possible near-term rebound, but bearish momentum remains strong.
• Bollinger Bands showed a modest contraction into expansion, suggesting increased volatility ahead.

The VulcanForged/Bitcoin (PYRBTC) pair opened at $0.0000088 on 2025-09-22 12:00 ET, fell to a 24-hour low of $0.00000852, and closed at $0.00000865 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23. Total volume over the period reached 11,940.94 units, with a notional turnover of $102.93. The market displayed a bearish bias, supported by a key bearish engulfing pattern and increased bearish volume dynamics.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick chart showed several bearish formations, including a significant bearish engulfing pattern that emerged during the early hours of 2025-09-23. This pattern, forming at the price level $0.00000869–$0.00000852, suggests a shift in sentiment toward the bear side. Additionally, a doji formed near $0.00000853, hinting at a potential short-term consolidation phase. Key support levels were identified near $0.0000086 and $0.00000852, while resistance remains at $0.0000087 and $0.0000088.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward momentum. The 50-period MA (15-min) crossed below the 20-period MA at $0.00000872, creating a sell signal. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA crossed below the 200-period MA at $0.00000883, indicating a long-term bearish bias. These crossovers suggest a continuation of the bearish trend in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line on the 15-minute chart has remained below the signal line for the past several candles, confirming the bearish momentum. The histogram showed a slight expansion during the bearish breakdown, indicating a strengthening of the downtrend. The RSI reached an oversold level of 29 during the early hours of the session, suggesting a potential bounce in the near term. However, as long as the RSI remains below 40, bearish bias will continue to dominate.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands displayed a modest contraction into expansion phase, with price oscillating between the upper and lower bands. Price action remained below the 20-period moving average within the bands, indicating that the market is in a consolidation phase following a sharp decline. The current volatility expansion suggests an increased chance of a breakout or breakdown in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the bearish breakdown below $0.0000087, with a single candle at 2025-09-23 04:30 ET showing over 6,575 units traded and a notional value of $57.55. This high-volume move confirms the bearish sentiment. However, in the later part of the session, volume and turnover declined, indicating a lack of conviction in further price declines. A divergence between price and volume may signal a potential short-term reversal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 15-minute swing from $0.00000886 to $0.00000852, key retracement levels of 38.2% ($0.00000872) and 61.8% ($0.00000861) were tested. Price action currently sits near the 61.8% level, suggesting a possible rebound or further decline depending on the strength of the next candle. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement level lies at $0.00000863, aligning with the recent consolidation phase.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on detecting bearish engulfing patterns and divergences in RSI and volume during a downtrend. The idea is to enter a short position when a bearish engulfing pattern forms near key Fibonacci retracement levels and RSI reaches oversold conditions. Stops are placed above the high of the engulfing pattern, and targets are set at the next Fibonacci level (38.2%). The recent 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern at $0.00000869–$0.00000852 and the RSI hitting 29 align with the conditions of this strategy, making it a viable setup for further testing.