Market Overview: VulcanForged/Bitcoin (PYRBTC)

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• Price declined from 8.65e-06 to 8.25e-06, forming a bearish trend with high volume near the session high.
• RSI hit overbought levels early, followed by bearish divergence.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion post-15:00 ET, indicating heightened volatility.
• Volume surged at the 8.65e-06 high but dropped sharply after the 8.40e-06 support.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 8.45e-06, suggesting further downward pressure.

The VulcanForged/Bitcoin (PYRBTC) pair opened at 8.55e-06 on 2025-09-24 12:00 ET, surged to a high of 8.81e-06, then declined sharply to a low of 8.24e-06 before closing at 8.24e-06 on 2025-09-25 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 7,497.995 contracts, with a notional turnover of approximately $62.79 (based on BTC volume and price range).

On the 15-minute chart, price formed key resistance levels at 8.65e-06 and 8.81e-06, both of which failed to hold. A strong bearish engulfing pattern at 8.45e-06 reinforced bearish sentiment. The 20-period moving average dipped below the 50-period MA, indicating a shift in momentum.

MACD turned negative after 16:00 ET, with bearish divergence between price and momentum. RSI dropped from overbought conditions to 38–40, suggesting oversold levels may be near-term support. Bollinger Bands expanded after 15:00 ET, signaling increased volatility.

Volume surged at key price levels, notably at 8.65e-06, where a large candle confirmed resistance. However, volume dropped after the 8.40e-06 level, indicating weak follow-through for further bearish moves. A notable divergence between price and volume was observed near the 8.50e-06 zone.

Fibonacci retracements from the 8.24e-06 to 8.81e-06 swing suggest key levels at 8.56e-06 (61.8%) and 8.70e-06 (38.2%), both of which showed some rejections during the session. The 200-period MA on the daily chart remains above the current price, indicating long-term bearish bias.

Looking ahead, PYRBTC may test the 8.24e-06 low for consolidation or break below it toward 8.15e-06–8.18e-06. A rebound above 8.45e-06 would suggest a retest of 8.56e-06 for a potential reversal. Investors should watch for volume confirmation at key Fibonacci and MA levels, with bearish momentum likely to continue unless a bullish reversal pattern forms near the 8.45e-06–8.50e-06 range.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential short-term backtest strategy involves entering short positions at the close of a bearish engulfing pattern with volume above the 5-period moving average and a rejection at a Fibonacci retracement level. Targets are set at 38.2% and 61.8% levels, with a stop loss placed above the nearest bullish candlestick high. This strategy aligns with the observed price action and could be evaluated using historical data over the past 30 days to assess its robustness.