Market Overview for VulcanForged/Bitcoin (PYRBTC): 2025-10-05

• Price drifted lower in a bearish bias with a low of 7.93e-06.
• Volatility spiked after 19:30 ET amid declining prices and heavy volume.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum, with no immediate oversold bounce.
• Volume increased sharply at key support levels, hinting at short-term accumulation.
• Bollinger Band contraction early morning ET foreshadowed a sharp price move.

VulcanForged/Bitcoin (PYRBTC) opened at 7.99e-06 on 2025-10-04 at 16:00 ET and closed at 8.03e-06 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a 24-hour high of 8.1e-06 and a low of 7.85e-06. Total volume amounted to 15,877.12, while total turnover was $0.127 (based on Bitcoin price reference). The session was marked by choppy price action, bearish breakouts, and a late-day rebound amid volatile swings.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a series of bearish engulfing patterns from 19:30 to 20:15 ET, confirming a breakdown from a key resistance level at 8.01e-06. A support zone emerged between 7.93e-06 and 7.95e-06, where price found a short-term floor twice. A doji formed around 05:00 ET, signaling indecision, but the market failed to regain bullish control. A bearish flag pattern developed post-05:00 ET, reinforcing the downward trend.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average dipped below the 50-period line, confirming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remained above the 200-period MA, indicating a slightly bullish bias over the longer term, but recent price weakness suggests a possible retest of key support.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative and remained bearish throughout the session, with bearish divergences visible in the late afternoon. RSI dipped below 30 during the 04:00–06:00 ET timeframe, hinting at oversold conditions, but failed to spark a sustainable rebound. Price continued to trend lower despite this, indicating weak conviction in a short-term reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a significant contraction in the early hours of 10/05, followed by an explosive break below the lower band. This volatility expansion aligned with increased volume and marked the start of a sharp bearish leg. Price remained near the lower band for much of the session, suggesting elevated bearish pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged at 19:30 and 22:15 ET during key breakdowns, reinforcing the bearish bias. However, turnover did not increase in line with volume, suggesting smaller or less aggressive trading activity. A notable volume spike at 04:00 ET coincided with a price rejection at 7.95e-06, indicating accumulation by shorts or cautious buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 61.8% retracement level of the 19:30–20:30 ET bearish swing was found at 7.94e-06, which price briefly retested. On the daily chart, the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 7.97e-06 appeared to act as a minor resistance. The 61.8% retracement level of the broader downtrend sits at 7.88e-06, a potential near-term target if the bearish trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtest strategy involves shorting PYRBTC on a bearish engulfing pattern confirmation, with a stop above the engulfing high and a take-profit at the prior swing low. A trailing stop may be used if the price breaks higher during the trade. Given the bearish divergence in MACD and RSI, combined with multiple engulfing patterns and breakdowns at key levels, this strategy appears well-aligned with the observed price action. The key would be timing the short entry after confirmed rejections and avoiding false breakouts, particularly near the 7.93e-06–7.95e-06 support cluster.