Market Overview for Viction/Tether (VICUSDT): 2025-09-17 12:00 ET

• Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) declined from 0.2319 to 0.2251, forming bearish momentum with a low at 0.2241.
• RSI dropped below 30, suggesting oversold conditions, but volume failed to confirm a reversal.
• Bollinger Bands widened after a consolidation phase, reflecting increased volatility.
• A key support zone was tested at 0.225–0.226, with mixed follow-through on volume.
• Fibonacci 61.8% retracement at 0.2265 appears to offer near-term relevance for potential bounce.

At 12:00 ET, Viction/Tether (VICUSDT) opened at 0.2280, surged to a high of 0.2319, and closed at 0.2251 after a 24-hour session. Total volume amounted to 1,052,829.04 VICS, with notional turnover of $239,474.10. The pair traded within a defined range but showed bearish bias in the final hours.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period revealed a distinct bearish bias, with VICUSDT testing key support levels repeatedly. A 15-minute candle at 0.2251 (09:30–09:45 ET) formed a piercing pattern against a prior bearish trend, suggesting a potential short-term reversal. However, a follow-through failed to materialize, and the price continued to decline. The formation of dark cloud cover patterns during the 04:15–04:30 and 08:15–08:30 ET timeframes highlighted bearish sentiment, particularly when volume was relatively strong.

Key support levels identified include 0.2250 (tested 5x) and 0.2240–0.2245 (tested 4x), while resistance appears to cluster at 0.2265–0.2270 and 0.2285–0.2290. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 03:45–04:00 ET, which helped drive the price down to a key support level.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish tilt. The 50-period MA is currently at 0.2277, while the 20-period MA is at 0.2271. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits at 0.2290, the 100-period at 0.2304, and the 200-period at 0.2319. The price is now sitting below both the 50 and 100-period lines, but remains above the 200-period MA, indicating some long-term support may still be in place.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative during the second half of the session, with the histogram expanding downward, reflecting growing bearish momentum. The RSI dipped below 30 during the 08:30–09:00 ET period, signaling oversold conditions, though the failure of price to reverse after reaching 0.2241 suggests caution for bidders.

A MACD crossover between the signal and line occurred at 05:15 ET, indicating a potential entry point for short positions. However, this was not confirmed by volume, and the RSI did not show a strong rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest could be constructed using a MACD crossover + RSI divergence strategy on the 15-minute chart. The setup would go short when the MACD line crosses below the signal line and RSI diverges lower (bearish) below 50. Stop-loss would be placed above the 20-period MA or recent swing high. Take-profit would target the next Fibonacci level at 0.2225 (38.2% retracement) or 0.2200 (50% retracement). This strategy could be tested on recent VICUSDT data to assess profitability and false-positive rate.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility surged after a consolidation phase between 0.2270–0.2290 during the early part of the session. Bollinger Bands widened significantly following the 04:00–05:00 ET period, with the price oscillating between the lower band and the midline. The most recent 15-minute candle (12:00 ET) closed at 0.2251, just above the lower band, indicating that the pair is trading at a relatively low level within the expanded range.

A volatility contraction occurred before the 04:00–04:15 ET candle, followed by a sharp expansion. This type of setup often precedes a breakout, and traders may watch for a test of the 0.2270–0.2275 zone to gauge if the move back to the midline is gaining traction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was highly variable throughout the session, with the most intense selling pressure occurring between 04:00–06:00 ET. The candle at 05:30–05:45 ET recorded a volume spike of 51,144.61 VICS, coinciding with a low of 0.2251 and closing at the same level. This suggests strong distribution occurred at that level, potentially forming a short-term floor.

Notional turnover was at its highest during the 05:30–06:00 ET window, with $3,876.79 exchanged. However, in the final 3 hours before 12:00 ET, turnover decreased despite a sharp pullback in price, indicating waning participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 04:00–06:00 ET decline (0.2319 to 0.2251), the 38.2% retracement is at 0.2288, and the 61.8% is at 0.2265. The price has tested the 61.8% level multiple times, with the most recent attempt to break above failing at 0.2270–0.2275. A successful move above 0.2265 could signal a potential bounce toward 0.2280, but a breakdown below 0.2250 would confirm a deeper decline is likely.

The next 24 hours could see further bearish momentum if the price fails to break above 0.2265 with strong volume. A close below 0.2240 would increase the probability of a test toward 0.2225. Traders are advised to watch for a confirmation candle above 0.2265 or below 0.2245, as divergence between price and volume may indicate a potential reversal.