Market Overview for Verge/Tether (XVGUSDT) – October 11, 2025

• Price fell sharply from $0.0076 to $0.0058 amid high-volume selloffs, with oversold RSI suggesting potential bounce.
• Volatility expanded significantly in late hours, with price hovering near the upper Bollinger Band in final 4-hour window.
• Key support at $0.00565–0.00570 appears robust, but resistance above $0.00585 remains untested.
• Notional turnover surged over $60M as price collapsed; volume and price action aligned with bearish momentum.
• 15-minute chart showed multiple bearish engulfing patterns, confirming bearish bias.

The XVGUSDT pair opened at $0.007552 on October 10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.007668, and closed at $0.005870 as of October 11 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 598,466,983 XVG, while notional turnover amounted to $3,467,064. The pair saw a prolonged bearish move in late hours, punctuated by sharp volume surges and a dramatic decline in price.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a sharp, bearish flag pattern during the overnight session, with a long bearish shadow and high-volume rejection at support levels between $0.00570 and $0.00565. Notable bearish engulfing patterns were observed in the 15-minute chart around 02:00–03:00 ET and 07:00–08:00 ET, which confirmed the continuation of the downward trend. A key support zone at $0.00564–0.00569 has held multiple times, preventing a steeper decline.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both closed the session below the current price, reinforcing the bearish momentum. For the daily chart, the 50-period MA sat at around $0.0062, while the 200-period MA hovered near $0.0067. Price remains well below both, suggesting a prolonged bearish trend could continue unless a strong reversal forms.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the early hours of October 11, signaling a bearish divergence. By midday, the MACD histogram had shrunk slightly, hinting at potential exhaustion in the short-term selloff. RSI, which had dropped to oversold territory near 32, remains below 50, indicating continued bearish pressure. A bounce above 45 could suggest a temporary pause in the decline.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the final 6 hours of the session, pushing price to the upper band at $0.0059. The widening of the bands from a narrow consolidation phase around $0.0058–0.0059 suggests renewed momentum. Price closed within the lower half of the band, indicating a possible pullback or test of the lower band in the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

The highest single 15-minute volume spike occurred at 02:00 ET, with 222 million XVG traded as the price dropped from $0.006732 to $0.005288. Turnover during this period was over $1.2 million. A divergence between price and turnover was not observed; both metrics aligned with bearish price action, confirming the selloff. Volume began tapering off in the final 4 hours, which may signal a short-term pause in the move lower.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key swing from $0.007668 to $0.005870, the 61.8% level is at approximately $0.00649, which acted as a resistance during the consolidation phase. The 50% retracement at $0.00675 is now acting as a strong overhead resistance. A break above this level could trigger a test of the 38.2% level at $0.00705, though this seems unlikely without a sharp reversal in momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve identifying 15-minute bearish engulfing patterns forming after a strong move lower, with RSI in oversold territory and a key support level holding. The strategy would enter a short position at the open of the next candle after the pattern completes and set a stop-loss just above the recent swing high. Given the recent behavior of XVGUSDT, this approach could have yielded profits in the October 10–11 window, particularly during the 02:00 and 07:00 ET breaks.