Market Overview for Verge/Tether (XVGUSDT) – 2025-10-05

• XVG/USDT traded between $0.00772 and $0.008997 in 24 hours, with a late morning rally to a 24-hour high before consolidating.
• Price formed bullish and bearish engulfing patterns, signaling indecision in the short term.
• RSI showed overbought conditions near $0.0089, followed by a pullback into oversold levels below $0.00785.
• Volatility expanded sharply during the midday rally, with volume peaking at over 40 million units during bullish phases.
• Bollinger Bands reflected widening volatility, with price retesting the lower band multiple times during the session.

XVG/USDT opened at $0.007854 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $0.008997 before closing at $0.007903 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET. Total traded volume was approximately 314 million units, with a 24-hour turnover of around $256.7 million.

Structure & Formations: Price exhibited a strong bullish thrust in the early afternoon, forming a long-bodied bullish candle, followed by a bearish engulfing pattern as the rally stalled. A notable doji appeared at $0.008674, suggesting indecision in a key resistance zone. Key support levels are forming at $0.00829 and $0.00790, with resistance near $0.00855 and $0.00875.

Moving Averages: On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA, indicating potential short-term bullish momentum. However, the 50-period MA lagged behind the price during the late-day pullback, suggesting a possible bearish retest. Daily MAs remained neutral, with the 200-day MA acting as a floor in recent sessions.

MACD & RSI: The MACD crossed into positive territory during the afternoon rally but failed to sustain the bullish signal, crossing back into negative territory by the close. RSI peaked near 75 in the early rally, entered oversold territory below 30 in the late session, and closed near 45, indicating a possible consolidation phase.

Bollinger Bands: Price traded near the upper band during the peak rally and retested the lower band during the pullback. The bands themselves expanded during the volatility surge, confirming increased market participation and uncertainty.

Volume & Turnover: Notional turnover spiked during the bullish phase, with over $12 million traded during a 15-minute period. The largest volume cluster was around $0.00865, where price stalled. A divergence between volume and price was observed late in the session, where volume declined despite a continued bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements: On the 15-minute chart, a 61.8% retracement level at $0.00855 held as resistance, while the 38.2% level at $0.00827 acted as support. On the daily chart, a 50% retracement of the recent bearish leg is at $0.00815, which may become a key level in the coming days.

Backtest Hypothesis: A potential strategy could involve entering long positions when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed below the nearest support level. A trailing stop could be used to secure gains as the RSI moves above 50. However, the bearish engulfing pattern and RSI divergence suggest caution. A short-biased approach may be more prudent if price fails to break $0.00855 with conviction and volume declines. This setup would benefit from incorporating both Fibonacci retracement levels and Bollinger Band retests for confirmation.