Market Overview: Venus/Tether (XVSUSDT) Daily Report

• Price declined from 6.47 to 6.32 over 24 hours, closing near 6.36.
• Volatility expanded in the early ET session, followed by a consolidation phase.
• RSI showed bearish momentum in the early morning, but remains neutral mid-day.
• Volume surged after 04:00 ET, signaling significant bearish activity and a break of key support levels.
• Bollinger Bands constricted in the overnight session, followed by a sharp expansion and price drop.

Venus/Tether (XVSUSDT) opened at 6.42 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET and closed at 6.36 on 2025-09-24 at the same time. The 24-hour low reached 6.17, while the high was 6.47. Total volume over the period amounted to 115,263.38, with a notional turnover of $698,897.30.

The price structure formed a broad descending channel, with key resistance at 6.42-6.47 and support at 6.32-6.34. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged during the 04:15–04:30 ET timeframe as XVSUSDT fell from 6.29 to 6.20. A long-legged doji followed at 04:45 ET, indicating indecision after the sharp decline. Price consolidation resumed after 06:00 ET, with a series of neutral to slightly bullish candles forming in the 6.32–6.37 range.

The 15-minute chart showed the 20-period moving average dipping below the 50-period line, confirming a short-term bearish bias. The daily 50-period MA currently sits above the 200-period line, suggesting a broader neutral to bullish trend, though the recent price action may test this divergence. RSI dropped below 30 in the early morning, signaling an oversold condition, but failed to trigger a rebound, indicating bearish momentum may persist. MACD showed a negative crossover with bearish divergence in the morning hours.

Bollinger Bands constricted between 03:00–04:00 ET before expanding during the sharp sell-off, suggesting a breakout to the downside was in progress. Price stayed near the lower band for much of the morning, with limited volatility until midday. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the 6.47 high to the 6.17 low lands at 6.33, aligning with the doji candlestick pattern and indicating a critical support level.

Volume spiked significantly during the early ET hours, particularly between 04:00–05:00 ET, when the price broke below 6.32. This large-volume bearish move was followed by a moderate buy-side accumulation phase after 06:00 ET. Turnover diverged from price during the 07:00–09:00 ET period, with volume declining despite a modest price increase, suggesting the rally lacked conviction.

Over the next 24 hours, XVSUSDT may test the 6.32–6.33 support level again. A break below this level could accelerate the move to 6.29, but a rejection could spark a short-term rebound to 6.37–6.40. Investors should remain cautious as volatility and momentum indicators suggest continued bearish potential in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described backtesting strategy involves entering a short position on a 15-minute chart when RSI falls below 30 and price breaks a key Fibonacci retracement level (61.8%) with a corresponding volume spike. A long position is triggered when RSI rises above 70, price closes above the 50-period moving average, and volume confirms the move. Using this approach, a potential short signal would have been generated at 04:15 ET on 2025-09-24, as XVSUSDT closed below 6.32 with a surge in volume. The subsequent price action aligned with the strategy's parameters, confirming the short thesis. A long signal is yet to form but could emerge if price retests the 6.37–6.40 zone with increasing volume and a RSI rebound above 50.