Market Overview: Venus/Tether (XVSUSDT) Daily Analysis

• XVSUSDT fell 8.8% over 24 hours, closing near $6.40 after breaking below key support.
• Volatility expanded in the second half of the session, with heavy bearish volume below $6.85.
• RSI entered oversold territory, while MACD turned bearish with negative divergence.
• Key support levels identified at $6.40, $6.32, and $6.26 for potential bounces.

The XVSUSDT pair opened at $6.92 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and reached a high of $6.98 before closing at $6.40 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. The total volume traded over the 24-hour window was approximately 124,024.34 units, with a notional turnover of $686,649.30. The price declined by 8.8% over the period amid increased bearish momentum and high volatility.

Structure & Formations

The chart shows a significant bearish breakdown below a key support level at $6.85, which coincided with a long lower shadow and bearish engulfing pattern. A strong bearish bias is evident, with a potential target at $6.40–$6.32, as these levels represent prior support and Fibonacci retracement levels. A doji appeared briefly near $6.70, suggesting possible short-term hesitation, but the overall trend remains decisively down.

Moving Averages, MACD & RSI

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs are trending downward, with the price consistently below both. The MACD crossed below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum, and shows negative divergence as price lows were lower than MACD lows. RSI entered oversold territory below 30 at the close, suggesting the pair may be due for a short-term bounce, though this does not signal a reversal in the broader downtrend.

Bollinger Bands widened significantly in the latter half of the session, indicating increased volatility. The price closed near the lower band, reinforcing bearish pressure and highlighting oversold conditions. However, a strong rebound from this level could signal short-term stabilization.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the breakdown below $6.85 and remained elevated throughout the session’s latter half, confirming the bearish move. Notional turnover also increased proportionally, with no significant divergence observed. The strong volume support for the move below $6.85 suggests a valid bearish signal, with the current price action aligning well with the volume profile.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key swing from $6.98 to $6.40, the 61.8% level aligns near $6.40, which is also a confluence of support from daily and 15-minute charts. A retest of this level could determine whether a short-term bounce materializes or if the pair continues lower toward the next major support at $6.32.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent breakdown and bearish confirmation across multiple indicators, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry at $6.60 with a stop above $6.85, targeting $6.40 as the initial stop and $6.32 as the second. A long setup could be considered if price rebounds above $6.60 with strong volume confirmation, with a stop below $6.50 and a target at $6.70. This strategy relies on the confluence of Fibonacci levels, RSI divergence, and volume action to filter high-probability setups.