Market Overview for Venus/Tether USDt (XVSUSDT)

• Price rose from 6.21 at 1600 ET to 6.44 at 1315 ET, forming a bullish flag pattern before consolidating.
• RSI reached overbought levels near 70 during the afternoon, but failed to break above 6.44.
• Volume surged on the 6.40–6.44 highs, confirming strength, but declined during the pullback, suggesting potential exhaustion.
• Bollinger Bands expanded in the morning, narrowing after 1700 ET as volatility eased.
• Turnover exceeded $4.5M in the 6.40–6.44 range, aligning with strong volume and price action.

Venus/Tether USDt (XVSUSDT) opened at 6.21 on 2025-09-09 12:00 ET, reached a high of 6.44, and closed at 6.39 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-10. The pair saw a 24-hour trading volume of 75,069.33 and a notional turnover of ~$4.75M.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour OHLCV data shows a distinct bullish flag pattern between 6.21 and 6.44, with a consolidation phase following a sharp 15-minute breakout. Notable support levels formed at 6.20 and 6.37–6.38, while 6.44 served as a strong short-term resistance. A bullish engulfing pattern was visible around 1030 ET when the candle opened at 6.35 and closed at 6.38. The 6.36–6.37 region appears to have acted as a pivot during the afternoon retracement.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average crossed above the 50-period line in the early morning, signaling a short-term bullish trend. The 50-period moving average remained above the 100 and 200-period lines, reinforcing a medium-term bullish bias. The 50-period line on the daily chart crossed above the 200-period line during the morning session, suggesting a continuation of the uptrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line in the early morning, staying positive until the late afternoon, where it began to decline, indicating weakening momentum. The RSI reached overbought levels (above 70) near 6.44, but failed to sustain above that level, hinting at short-term resistance. A pullback to the 6.35–6.36 range saw the RSI dropping to 50–55, suggesting a potential return to equilibrium.

Bollinger Bands expanded in the morning as volatility increased, with price staying near the upper band during the early breakout. After 1700 ET, the bands began to contract, aligning with the price consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked above 4,000 on the 6.40–6.44 highs, with strong buying pressure during the 1030–1130 ET period. Turnover also surged in that range, reaching over $4.5M. The pullback to 6.36–6.38 saw a noticeable drop in volume and turnover, indicating a lack of follow-through buying and potential exhaustion. No significant divergence was observed between price and volume, suggesting the trend remains intact for now.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 6.21–6.44 swing, the 38.2% retracement level is at 6.35, and the 61.8% level is at 6.31. The price found support at 6.36–6.37, suggesting the 38.2% level acted as a pivot. For the daily timeframe, the 50% retracement from a broader swing lies near 6.40, which appears to have capped the rally.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy suggests entering long positions on bullish engulfing patterns confirmed by volume surges and RSI crossing above 50. During this 24-hour period, such a setup was visible around 1030 ET and 0230–0245 ET. A stop-loss at 6.26 and a target at 6.44 could have captured most of the move. A short-term pullback to 6.37–6.38 could then offer another long entry with a tighter stop, assuming volume and RSI confirm the trend. This setup aligns well with the observed structure, suggesting a testable strategy for similar patterns in future sessions.