Market Overview for VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) on 2025-11-03

• VETUSDT traded within a tightening range near 0.0152, with support at 0.0151 and resistance at 0.0153.
• RSI signaled oversold conditions early morning, followed by a modest rebound without a strong directional bias.
• Bollinger Bands contracted toward 12:00 ET, suggesting potential for a breakout or consolidation continuation.
• Volume spiked below 0.0152 after 15:30 ET, hinting at possible exhaustion or short-term reversal.

VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) opened at 0.01585 on 2025-11-02, rose to 0.01635, fell to 0.01423, and closed at 0.01523 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03. The pair saw a total volume of 394,317,065.72 and a turnover of $5,908,208.55 over the 24-hour window.

The structure over the past 24 hours shows a key support cluster forming near 0.0151 and resistance consolidating around 0.0153. A long-legged doji formed in the early morning hours at 0.01522, suggesting indecision. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged briefly near 0.01535 but failed to carry through. The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed below the 50-period line, indicating bearish momentum.

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The RSI hit an oversold level below 30 for a brief period before recovering to neutral territory, while the MACD line crossed the signal line with a weak histogram, hinting at a possible bounce. Bollinger Bands tightened between 0.01515 and 0.0153, with the price hovering near the lower band at 0.01517. This compression could precede a breakout or a period of reduced volatility. Volume spiked near 0.0151 after 15:30 ET but did not confirm a strong move, raising questions about follow-through demand.

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The Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high of 0.01635 to the low of 0.01423 highlight key potential zones: 38.2% at 0.0155 and 61.8% at 0.0150. VETUSDT is currently near the 61.8% level, which could act as a pivot point for near-term buyers. The 50-period MA on the daily chart remains above the 200-period line, suggesting a longer-term bullish bias. However, the 15-minute chart’s bearish crossover suggests a short-term pullback may be imminent.

Backtest Hypothesis
The RSI-oversold, 5-day-hold back-test for VETUSDT covering 2022-01-01 – 2025-11-02 has been completed. Key take-aways: the oversold bounce has not been reliable over this period, delivering a modest positive annualised return but a negative cumulative P/L and a deep draw-down. Risk-adjusted performance (Sharpe ≈ 0.05) is weak, indicating returns have barely compensated for volatility. Holding a fixed five-day window after each signal often allowed gains to evaporate; consider dynamic exits or confirmation filters to improve the edge.

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Looking ahead, VETUSDT may test 0.0150–0.0151 as a critical support cluster, with a potential counter-trend bounce toward 0.0153 if bulls reassert control. A breakdown below 0.0150 would signal renewed bearish momentum. Investors should remain cautious ahead of the next 24 hours, especially as volatility remains compressed and divergence between price and volume is present.