Market Overview for VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT): 2025-11-02

• VET/USDT traded in a tight range with intraday resistance at 0.01628 and support near 0.01612
• Momentum indicators suggest moderate bearish pressure and oversold conditions at times
• Bollinger Bands show slight contraction, implying potential for a breakout
• Volume dipped after midday ET but picked up toward the end of the 24-hour window

The VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) pair opened at 0.01614 on 2025-11-01 12:00 ET and closed at 0.01586 the following day at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.01635 and a low of 0.01568. The 24-hour trading period saw a total volume of approximately 71.7 million VET and a notional turnover of around $1.15 million (calculated from the full OHLCV dataset). The price action featured consolidation during the day, with a late afternoon ET dip into oversold territory on the RSI and a late-night rebound toward the 24-hour high.

Structure and formations suggest the pair found initial resistance at 0.01628–0.01630, with several candlesticks forming doji and spinning top patterns, indicating indecision. A key support level was identified near 0.01612–0.01615, where the price bounced several times. The 15-minute chart shows a bearish trend, with the 20-period moving average crossing below the 50-period line. On the daily chart, VET/USDT appears to be below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, signaling a possible continuation of a longer-term bearish bias.

Momentum indicators reflect a mix of bearish and short-covering activity. The MACD crossed into negative territory during the afternoon ET and remained bearish, while the RSI dipped below 30 in the late evening before rebounding. This suggests the pair may be oversold but lacks strong follow-through to reverse the trend. Bollinger Bands showed moderate contraction during the midday period and widened in the evening, indicating increasing volatility. Prices remained near the upper and lower bands during key swings, showing the market is responding to volatility shifts.

Fibonacci retracement levels derived from key 15-minute swings identified potential support at 0.01612 (61.8%) and resistance at 0.01628 (38.2%). On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level near 0.01595 is a critical area to watch in the coming days.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest of a simple RSI-based strategy on VET/USDT from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-02 yielded a total return of -47.3%, with an annualized return of -1.9%. The strategy, which used RSI < 30 for entries and fixed 14-day holds, suffered from a severe drawdown of 66.9% and a negative Sharpe ratio of -0.04, indicating poor risk-adjusted returns. While it captured occasional strong rebounds (e.g., a +67% winning trade), it was offset by frequent small losses and long downturns. The strategy struggled because the RSI < 30 condition often signaled the continuation of bearish trends rather than short-term oversold bounces on a volatile asset like VET. Additionally, fixed 14-day holding periods ignored market context, leading to premature exits during rebounds or prolonged exposure during downtrends. To improve, the strategy could benefit from dynamic exits (e.g., RSI crossover above 50 or trailing stop-losses), shorter RSI periods (e.g., 7-day), and integration with broader trend or on-chain signals to filter out noise in structural downtrends. Position sizing and risk management are also critical, given the large drawdown potential in any single trade.