Market Overview for VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) – 2025-10-14 24-Hour Analysis

• VETUSDT broke above key resistance of $0.0199 with bullish momentum and volume confirmation.
• RSI surged into overbought territory while MACD remained positive and ascending, indicating strong near-term buying pressure.
• Volatility expanded throughout the session, with price widening above Bollinger Bands by late evening.
• Downturn in trading activity observed in the final 8 hours, raising potential for short-term consolidation.

VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) opened at $0.01941 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.01845 on 2025-10-14 at 12:00 ET, reaching an intraday high of $0.0202 and a low of $0.01808. Total volume for the 24-hour period amounted to 333,100,319.8 units, with notional turnover reaching approximately $6,485,095 (based on weighted average prices). The pair exhibited strong bullish momentum early in the session, followed by a consolidation phase and a final pullback toward the close.

Structure & Formations

Price action showed a strong break above the $0.0199 level in the late afternoon, forming a series of higher highs and higher lows from 18:00 ET to 20:00 ET. This was accompanied by a bullish engulfing pattern around $0.0199–$0.02007, indicating strong buyer participation. However, the following hours saw a reversal and bearish divergence in the form of a hanging man candle near $0.0202 and a bearish dark cloud cover at $0.02019. A key support area between $0.0194 and $0.0192 was tested twice during the session and held for the most part, although late-night selling pushed price below $0.0192 temporarily.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA (golden cross) in the early evening, reinforcing the bullish trend. By the end of the session, price had fallen below the 50-period MA, suggesting short-term weakness. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA currently resides around $0.0192–$0.0193, and price closed just below this level. The 200-period MA at $0.0195–$0.0196 may serve as a short-term resistance should the pair retrace upward.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed strong positive divergence in the late afternoon, peaking at around $0.02007 with a histogram that remained positive through the evening. It declined sharply by 00:00 ET, signaling fading momentum. The RSI indicator reached overbought territory (above 65) during the bullish phase, peaking near 72. It dropped below 50 by the early morning, indicating bearish exhaustion and a potential pullback. Oversold conditions were briefly observed near $0.0184–$0.0185, but the RSI did not sustain below 30, suggesting limited strength on the downside.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly in the late afternoon as the Bollinger Band width reached a 24-hour high. Price pushed above the upper band by approximately 3.5% during the bullish surge and spent over 3 hours outside it, indicating a strong breakout. By the early morning, the bands began to contract, with price narrowing into the midband range. This suggests a potential period of consolidation ahead, with the midband acting as a dynamic support/resistance level in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume surged during the bullish phase, peaking at over 13 million units during the 18:00–19:15 ET window. This was accompanied by a sharp rise in notional turnover, particularly between $0.0199 and $0.02007. However, volume began to dry up after 00:00 ET, with turnover dropping by nearly 60% in the final 8 hours. This divergence between price action and volume could signal a weakening in conviction among buyers, increasing the risk of a pullback.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the key 15-minute swing from $0.01983 (18:30 ET) to $0.0202 (21:00 ET), the 61.8% retracement level is at $0.02002. Price tested this level twice, with the first retest failing to close above it and the second forming a bearish rejection candle. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement from the 2025 high of $0.0215 to the 2025 low of $0.0180 is currently at $0.0195–$0.0196, aligning with the 50-period MA and acting as a potential pivot point.

Backtest Hypothesis

The “Evening Star – 3-day short” strategy described earlier leverages bearish reversal patterns such as the hanging man and dark cloud cover, particularly when aligned with overbought RSI and diverging MACD. Given the strong overbought conditions observed in this 24-hour period, the strategy may have triggered a short signal around $0.0202 as the RSI peaked and the MACD began to roll over. The subsequent pullback toward $0.0184 would have provided favorable risk/reward for a 3-day holding period, aligning with the key Fibonacci and moving average levels discussed. The volume divergence also supports the hypothesis of a weakening bullish trend, increasing the probability of a successful short bias.