Market Overview for VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) – 2025-09-25

• VETUSDT declined 0.49% over the last 24 hours with key resistance near 0.02285 and support at 0.02193.
• Momentum weakened with RSI dipping below 40 and MACD turning negative around 0.0223.
• Volatility expanded in early trading, followed by a contraction in the afternoon.
• Volume surged during the 03:30–05:00 ET session, confirming the breakdown from 0.0226 to 0.0221.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed on 04:30 ET as price dropped below a recent bullish trend.

VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) opened at 0.02296 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.02197 at the same time on 2025-09-25. The 24-hour range was between 0.02298 (high) and 0.02162 (low), with a total volume of 209,388,863.5 VET and a notional turnover of approximately $4,767,983. Price declined in a bearish trend after midday, with significant volume concentration between 03:30 and 05:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a key bearish structure as VETUSDT broke below the psychological level of 0.0225 and found support at 0.02203 before resuming the decline. A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the 04:30 candle, confirming the breakdown from 0.0226 to 0.0221. A doji occurred at 03:45 ET near 0.02225, signaling indecision ahead of the larger sell-off. Support levels appear to be forming at 0.02193 and 0.02162, while resistance is expected to be retested around 0.0222–0.0224.

Moving Averages

The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both dipped below the price, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is approaching the 200-period MA, suggesting a potential bearish crossover may occur in the next 24–48 hours. The 100-period MA on the daily timeframe is currently acting as a strong resistance.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the zero line around 0.0223, with the histogram showing a bearish divergence from the 03:30–05:00 ET session. The RSI dipped below 40, indicating weakening momentum and a potential continuation of the downtrend. While not yet in oversold territory, the RSI at 35–40 suggests a high probability of further downward movement unless price rebounds above the 0.0225–0.0226 range.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the early hours, with the bands widening beyond 0.0004. By midday, the bands had contracted to around 0.0002, reflecting a period of consolidation. Price remained near the lower band for most of the trading day, indicating a bearish environment. A breakout above the upper band at 0.0226 could signal a short-term reversal, but this would require a surge in volume and momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 03:30–05:00 ET window, confirming the breakdown from 0.0226. Turnover also increased, reaching a peak of $167,000 at 04:30 ET. The price-to-turnover correlation was strong during this period, suggesting genuine bearish participation. Divergences occurred in the afternoon when volume dropped despite continued price declines, indicating waning selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the 61.8% retracement level of the 0.02162–0.02262 move is at 0.02211, which was tested and rejected. On the daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the recent decline is at 0.02198, coinciding with current price levels. A break below 0.02198 would target the 61.8% level at 0.02162.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering a short position on a bearish engulfing pattern that forms after a prior bullish move, confirmed by a volume spike and RSI below 40. The stop-loss would be placed above the recent swing high, while the target would be the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the preceding bullish leg. Given the recent bearish engulfing pattern at 0.02228 and the confirmation by declining momentum and volume, this strategy appears well-aligned with the observed price action.