Market Overview for Vanar Chain/USDC (VANRYUSDC) – October 4, 2025

• Price declined from 0.029 to 0.0274, indicating bearish momentum with no major resistance breached.
• RSI and MACD suggest weakening bullish pressure, pointing to potential further downside.
• Volatility expanded during the 24-hour window, but volume remained mixed, showing no strong conviction.
• A breakdown below 0.0275 could trigger a test of the 0.0269 Fibonacci level.
• Bollinger Bands show price trading near the lower band, indicating oversold conditions.

Vanar Chain/USDC (VANRYUSDC) opened at 0.0286 at 12:00 ET – 1 and traded between 0.029 and 0.0272 before closing at 0.0274 at 12:00 ET. Total 24-hour volume amounted to 3,798,537.0, with a notional turnover of $105,821.50 (based on volume × price).

The 15-minute chart reveals a consistent bearish bias throughout the day, with multiple rejection attempts from the 0.028–0.0285 resistance cluster failing to push the pair above. A strong bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 22:30–23:00 ET, followed by a continuation of downward momentum. Key support levels appear at 0.0278 and 0.0272, with 0.0269 marking a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement from the day’s high. Resistance is still seen at 0.0286–0.029, which may need to be retested for a reversal signal.

Bollinger Bands indicate increased volatility, with the price trading near the lower band for most of the session. This suggests oversold conditions, though RSI remains in neutral to bearish territory, suggesting caution about a rebound. The MACD crossed below the signal line earlier in the session, reinforcing the bearish tone. A close below 0.0275 could increase the likelihood of a move toward 0.0269.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart both point downward, with the price trading below both. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMAs are converging, suggesting a potential continuation of bearish momentum if the support levels are not able to hold. The 0.0278 level appears as a critical psychological and Fibonacci confluence point.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish setup and the key support levels identified, a potential backtest strategy could be to enter short positions with a stop above 0.0278 and a target at 0.0269. This approach would align with the observed momentum and Fibonacci retracement levels, leveraging the RSI and MACD indicators to confirm the bearish bias. A trailing stop could be added once the price breaks below 0.0272 to capture further downside. This strategy should be tested over historical data to confirm its robustness across varying market conditions.