Market Overview: Vanar Chain/USDC (VANRYUSDC)

• Price dropped from 0.0306 to 0.0288 over 24 hours, closing near 12-hour low.
• High volatility observed in early morning hours, with sharp pullbacks from key resistance.
• Volume spiked in midday ET, but failed to confirm bullish price action.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish momentum late in the cycle, with RSI entering oversold territory.
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion early, followed by contraction suggesting potential consolidation.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-09-14, Vanar Chain/USDC (VANRYUSDC) opened at 0.0306, hit a high of 0.0307, a low of 0.0286, and closed at 0.0288. Total 24-hour volume was 7,510,630.0 and turnover reached approximately 215.56 USDC. The pair exhibited a bearish bias, particularly in the final half of the trading window.

Structure & Formations

Price broke below key support levels at 0.0305 and 0.0302, triggering a sharp drop into the 0.0290–0.0289 range. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 0.0303 during the 05:15–05:30 ET period, followed by a long lower shadow doji at 0.0298–0.0299, signaling indecision. A strong bearish trend emerged after 04:00 ET as the price collapsed from 0.0303 to 0.0298 in a single candle.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA into bearish territory by 06:00 ET, confirming a downward shift. The daily chart showed the 50DMA crossing below the 100DMA, reinforcing the bearish bias. MACD turned negative by 05:00 ET, with a bearish crossover and a flattening histogram. RSI hit oversold levels (~25) around 07:00 ET, but no immediate reversal followed—suggesting the decline could continue unless a strong bullish catalyst emerges.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the sharp drop from 0.0306 to 0.0298 between 04:15 and 04:30 ET, indicating increased volatility. A subsequent contraction occurred during the 05:00–06:30 ET period as the market appeared to consolidate. Price closed the day near the lower band at 0.0288, indicating a possible test of the 0.0285 level in the next 24 hours if the trend continues.

Volume and Turnover

The largest volume spike occurred at 06:00 ET with 1,029,293.0 units traded, coinciding with a price low of 0.0301. However, this was not followed by a recovery, suggesting a lack of buying interest. A divergence formed between price and turnover as volume waned during the final hours despite continued price declines, indicating exhaustion on the short side.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the move from 0.0306 to 0.0288 hit the 61.8% retracement level near 0.0294. A 38.2% retracement at 0.0297–0.0298 served as a temporary resistance zone that failed to hold. The 61.8% level may act as a key support area to watch for a potential bounce in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve a short bias when RSI drops below 25 and MACD turns negative on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss above a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and a target at the 61.8% level. This approach could be refined by incorporating a volume filter—only entering short trades if volume exceeds 100,000 in the triggering candle. Given the recent divergence in the volume and price action, this rule may help filter out false signals and improve trade discipline.