Market Overview for Vanar Chain/USDC (VANRYUSDC) on 2025-10-11

• Price action saw a sharp bearish breakdown from 0.0254 to 0.0162 before a modest rebound
• Momentum reversed after an RSI drop into oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term stabilization
• Volatility expanded significantly with large volume spikes during the 21:00–00:00 ET selloff
• Bollinger Bands tightened post-breakout, indicating a possible consolidation phase ahead
• Turnover surged during the crash, showing significant liquidation pressure and bearish sentiment

Vanar Chain/USDC (VANRYUSDC) opened at $0.0254 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0189 by the same time the next day. The 24-hour range saw a high of $0.0257 and a low of $0.0061, marking a sharp bearish reversal. Total volume amounted to approximately 19,294,867.0 units, while notional turnover reached around $444,341.45. The pair displayed a clear trend reversal following early bearish dominance.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a key bearish breakdown from the 0.0254–0.0257 range to the support level of 0.0162–0.0165, followed by a modest rebound. During this breakdown, a large bearish candle at 21:00–21:15 ET (time: 2025-10-10 210000) with a high of 0.0247 and a close of 0.0227 signaled aggressive liquidation. Later, a doji-like formation around 0.0165–0.0167 indicated short-term indecision and potential consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were significantly above the current price, reinforcing the bearish momentum. On a daily timeframe, the 200-period moving average remains distant, suggesting the pair is in a strong downtrend. The 50-period and 100-period lines have crossed below the 200-period, reinforcing a bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line and remained negative for most of the 24 hours, supporting the bearish narrative. RSI dropped below 30 and stayed in oversold territory for several hours, hinting at a potential bounce. However, the low volume during the rebound suggests limited conviction, making a prolonged bottom uncertain.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the bearish breakdown, with price breaching the lower band at 0.0162. After the initial sell-off, volatility slightly contracted and price returned within the bands, suggesting a potential short-term consolidation. The 20-period Bollinger Bands are now wider, indicating increased uncertainty and potential for a breakout or breakdown.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the selloff, especially between 21:00 and 00:00 ET, confirming the bearish momentum. Turnover surged during the same period, aligning with the sharp price drop. Later, volume remained moderate during the rebound, indicating a lack of strong bullish conviction and potentially limited upside.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 0.0254–0.0162 swing, price found initial support at the 61.8% level (~0.0214), which was broken. It subsequently retested the 50% (~0.0208) and 38.2% (~0.0233) levels. On a daily scale, a rebound at 0.0189–0.0191 aligns with the 38.2% retracement level of the larger bearish move, suggesting limited near-term upside.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy emphasizes entering long positions on RSI divergence from oversold levels combined with a bullish reversal candlestick pattern (e.g., hammer or engulfing). A short bias is triggered when RSI remains overbought with bearish continuation patterns and a breakdown through a Fibonacci level. Given today’s action, any bounce in the next 24 hours may offer a long entry, but the bearish trend remains intact. A confirmed break above 0.0191 could trigger a test of 0.0208, while a retest of 0.0162–0.0165 could confirm a deeper correction.