Market Overview for Vanar Chain/USDC (VANRYUSDC) on 2025-09-25

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• Price drifted lower over 24 hours, closing near 0.0235 with bearish consolidation in the final session.
• Volume surged during sharp declines, suggesting intensified selling pressure after midday ET.
• RSI indicates oversold conditions, while MACD hints at weakening bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded overnight, with price breaching key 0.0240 psychological level.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed in the early morning, signaling possible continuation of the downtrend.

Vanar Chain/USDC (VANRYUSDC) opened at 0.0245 on 2025-09-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0235 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.0248 and a low of 0.0231. Total traded volume reached 3,987,448.0 over the 24-hour period, with a notional turnover of $99,181.16. Price appears to be consolidating within a bearish bias after a late-night sell-off.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bearish bias throughout the 24-hour period, with key support levels forming around 0.0235 and 0.0231. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged in the early morning session (03:30–03:45 ET), which may signal continued bearish momentum. A doji formed at 05:15 ET near 0.0240, suggesting indecision amid the downtrend. Resistance levels emerged at 0.0245 and 0.0248, both of which failed to hold during sharp rebounds. These levels could be watched for potential bounces in the near term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both drifted lower, with price consistently closing below the 20SMA since late morning. The 50SMA may act as dynamic resistance if there is a rally. On the daily chart, the 50DMA has crossed below the 100DMA and 200DMA, forming a death cross-like structure, which may reinforce bearish sentiment for the longer term.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD has turned negative and remains below the signal line, with bearish divergence seen during the morning sell-off. RSI has dropped into oversold territory (below 30), suggesting potential for a short-term rebound, though without a clear bullish reversal pattern, this may be limited. Momentum appears to be waning, with MACD histogram bars shrinking after the morning sell-off.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly overnight, reflecting increased volatility. Price has spent most of the session within the lower half of the bands, particularly after the 04:00 ET sell-off. A test of the upper band at 0.0246 could happen during a rebound but may struggle to hold, especially with bearish momentum intact.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked during the 04:45–05:45 ET timeframe, coinciding with the strongest bearish moves. Notional turnover mirrored volume behavior, with the highest turnover recorded during the 05:00–05:15 ET period. A divergence between volume and price during the late-morning rebound suggests weak conviction in buying pressure, reinforcing bearish bias for the near term.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.0248 to 0.0231, key retracement levels of 38.2% (0.0240) and 61.8% (0.0237) are currently being tested. Price is hovering near 0.0237, suggesting the next potential level could be 0.0231 if the bearish move continues. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent downtrend from 0.0246 to 0.0231 lies at 0.0236, which has now become a potential support level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern and the oversold RSI, a backtest strategy could involve entering a short position after a close below the 0.0240 level, with a stop-loss set just above the 0.0245 resistance. The target would align with the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.0231. A trailing stop could be used once the position enters a profit zone, with a maximum risk of 2.5% of the portfolio. The strategy relies on the continuation of bearish momentum and assumes a stable market environment, avoiding conditions with strong bullish catalysts.