Market Overview for Vanar Chain/USDC (VANRYUSDC) – 2025-09-23

• Vanar Chain/USDC (VANRYUSDC) traded in a 24-hour range between $0.0237 and $0.0251, closing near $0.0247.
• Momentum shifted mid-day with a bullish breakout above $0.0243, followed by consolidation and a pullback into the session close.
• Volatility expanded sharply around 19:00 ET, with a high-volume candle confirming the breakout, but diverged in the final hours.
• RSI hovered in overbought territory briefly before retracing, signaling potential exhaustion and a possible near-term correction.
• Bollinger Bands showed a wide expansion during the midday breakout, with prices fluctuating between the upper and midlines all session.

Vanar Chain/USDC (VANRYUSDC) opened at $0.0238 on 2025-09-22 12:00 ET and traded as high as $0.0251, as low as $0.0237, before closing at $0.0247 on 2025-09-23 12:00 ET. Total trading volume reached 5,692,957.0 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $137,535 USD (calculated from volume × average price).

The 24-hour session saw a clear structural shift in the midday hours, particularly after 19:00 ET, where the price broke above the key resistance level of $0.0243 on a large-volume candle. This breakout was confirmed by an engulfing pattern and a bullish reversal from a morning consolidation phase. However, after reaching a high of $0.0249, the price began to consolidate and show signs of bearish reversal patterns, including a doji near the high and a bearish harami in the early hours of 2025-09-23.

Support levels formed around $0.0242, $0.0245, and $0.0248, while resistance levels were observed at $0.0248 and $0.0250. Notably, the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart acted as a dynamic support during the consolidation phase, and the 20-period MA crossed above it in the late afternoon, suggesting short-term bullish momentum.

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MACD showed a bullish crossover in the afternoon, with the line rising above the signal line and creating positive divergence as the RSI hit overbought levels. RSI peaked at ~68, indicating moderate overbought conditions, but pulled back to neutral territory by the end of the session. This suggests that while the breakout was confirmed, there may be a short-term correction ahead. Bollinger Bands were wide during the breakout, and the price spent much of the session in the upper half of the band before drifting toward the midline, indicating a potential exhaustion of the upward move.

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The 15-minute chart revealed a Fibonacci retracement level at $0.0245 (61.8% of the prior downward swing) acting as a key pivot. Price touched this level twice before continuing the upward move, suggesting strong internal support. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages aligned closely, offering a neutral bias. The volume profile indicated significant accumulation around the breakout level, which could be a sign of institutional activity or strategic position-taking.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the observed price behavior and technical setup, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a breakout and retest system. A long entry might be triggered on a close above the $0.0243 resistance level, with a stop-loss placed just below $0.0240 and a target at $0.0248–$0.0250. The trailing stop could be based on RSI divergence or a drop below the 20-period moving average. This aligns with the bullish momentum seen in the MACD and the structural support at $0.0245, suggesting a high-probability trade entry. This strategy could be optimized for the 15-minute and 1-hour timeframes, with a focus on intraday position sizing and risk management.

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