Market Overview: Vanar Chain/USDC on 2025-10-08

• Price action showed a morning rally to 0.0277 followed by a consolidation phase near 0.0267–0.0272.
• RSI and MACD suggested overbought conditions early, then a shift to bearish momentum in late afternoon.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, with a peak turnover of 3.8 million at 0.0277, but later subsided.
• A long lower shadow at 0.0264–0.0265 in early morning ET suggested a brief oversold bounce.
• No clear trend emerged, with Vanar Chain/USDC closing near opening levels after volatile swings.

VANRYUSDC opened at 0.0268 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0266 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.0277 and a low of 0.0264 over the 24-hour period. Total volume traded was approximately 9.01 million, while notional turnover (in USDC) reached $236,850. The pair experienced pronounced intra-day volatility, with a morning bullish breakout followed by a consolidation phase and a late-night bearish pull.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart revealed a bullish flag pattern between 16:00 and 19:00 ET, with price rebounding off a horizontal support level around 0.0267–0.0269 before testing a key resistance at 0.0274. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed around 0.0271–0.0270 in the early morning hours. A large bearish candle (19:15–23:45 ET) capped the daily move near 0.0266.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20- and 50-period moving averages converged during the morning rally, suggesting strong short-term momentum. However, by late afternoon, the 50SMA crossed below the 20SMA, signaling a bearish shift. No clear trend was evident on the daily chart, with 50D/100D/200D lines all in close proximity near 0.0271.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD histogram showed a strong positive divergence in the early morning, peaking around 0.0276, followed by a bearish crossover in the evening. RSI reached overbought territory near 75 during the morning rally but then sank into oversold territory near 29 during the overnight consolidation phase. This suggests a market struggling to find direction, with strong pullbacks but weak follow-through.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly between 17:00 and 19:30 ET, with price peaking at +1.5σ. After that, volatility contracted sharply, and price spent the night consolidating around the 0.0265–0.0267 range, within 0.5σ. This points to a period of high uncertainty, with traders awaiting a clear breakout.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume occurred at 16:45 ET, with 176,574 contracts traded, and the highest turnover came at 20:45 ET, with 143,244 contracts and a notional value of $3.93 million. A notable divergence occurred in the evening hours, where price continued downward while volume declined. This could indicate weakening bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 0.0264–0.0277 swing, 0.0271 represents the 61.8% retracement level, which held as resistance in the evening. The 38.2% retracement at 0.0270 also showed support, but it failed to hold during the overnight decline.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtest strategy involves entering long positions when RSI drops below 30 and the price closes above the 20SMA on the 15-minute chart. A stop-loss is placed at the most recent swing low, and a target is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the prior bearish swing. Given the recent RSI oversold bounce and the 20SMA acting as a dynamic support, a trader might have found a long entry signal after 23:45 ET, with a target around 0.0271. However, the bearish MACD crossover and weakening volume suggest caution, as the market may not follow through with a bullish breakout.