Market Overview for Vana/USDC (VANAUSDC) – October 3, 2025

• Vana/USDC (VANAUSDC) traded in a 24-hour range of $3.89–$4.04, closing slightly higher near the upper end.
• A sharp 15-minute rally above $4.04 was followed by consolidation and a pullback into the lower half of the range.
• Key resistance at $4.04–$4.05 held during multiple attempts, while support at $3.98–$3.99 showed resilience.
• Volume and turnover spiked during the midday surge, then declined as the asset consolidated into a narrower band.
• RSI and MACD suggested moderate bullish momentum, but overbought conditions were not reached, indicating room for cautious optimism.

Vana/USDC (VANAUSDC) opened at $3.89 on October 2, 2025 (12:00 ET−1), reached a high of $4.046, and closed at $3.982 as of October 3, 2025 at 13:00 ET. The 24-hour notional volume was approximately 14,900, with a turnover of ~$58,600. Price formed a broad, sideways consolidation pattern with distinct resistance near $4.04–$4.05 and support at $3.98–$3.99.

Structure & Formations

Price tested the $4.04–$4.05 resistance cluster three times, with the most aggressive push occurring in the late afternoon on October 2 at $4.046. This was followed by a bearish engulfing pattern and a large bearish real body, indicating rejection. Support at $3.98–$3.99 held during the overnight session, with a doji forming at $3.982 as of the final candle. A key bullish engulfing pattern developed earlier in the evening at $3.95–$3.985, but it was later invalidated by a retracement into the lower half of the range.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price crossed above the 20-period and 50-period SMAs during the midday surge but then drifted below both as volume weakened. The 50-period SMA currently rests around $3.99, offering immediate support. Longer-term (daily chart) moving averages (50/100/200) are not available for this pair, but the 15-minute structure suggests a short-term bearish bias following the consolidation phase.

MACD & RSI

MACD remained positive during the midday rally but has since returned to neutral, indicating a loss of bullish momentum. RSI reached 55–60 during the peak of the rally, suggesting moderate strength without entering overbought territory. A bearish divergence appeared in the final 15-minute candle with RSI failing to close above the previous day’s high despite a similar price level, hinting at weakening buying pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Price remained within the Bollinger Bands for most of the session, with the upper band peaking around $4.04 and the lower band hovering near $3.96–$3.97. A temporary contraction in volatility occurred during the overnight hours, followed by an expansion during the midday surge. The current price is positioned near the middle band, suggesting a neutral to bearish outlook for the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over $23,000 during the afternoon rally, with a large block of 370.24 units moving the price from $4.023 to $4.072 in a single candle. However, turnover dropped off significantly after the failed push to $4.08, suggesting a lack of follow-through buying. The final candle saw a small volume spike of $14,900, but it did not confirm a bullish breakout above $4.04–$4.05.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key Fibonacci level at 61.8% of the $3.95–$4.046 swing was observed near $4.00, which held as support earlier in the session. A smaller retracement near $3.99–$3.995 also formed overnight and acted as a pivot for the final 15-minute candle. A break above $4.04 could target the 78.6% retracement at ~$4.06, while a breakdown below $3.99 could see price test the 38.2% level at $3.95.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed consolidation and failed breakout attempts at $4.04–$4.05, a potential backtesting strategy would involve a short-term reversal approach. A long entry could be triggered on a close above $4.05, with a stop-loss placed below $3.99. Conversely, a short entry may be considered on a close below $3.99 with a stop above $4.05. This strategy would aim to capture the mean-reverting nature of the current range and test the validity of key support and resistance levels.