Market Overview for Vana/USDC (VANAUSDC) – October 10, 2025

• Price opened at $3.834 and closed at $3.843, with intraday swings between $3.7 and $3.878.
• A late-night bearish breakdown below $3.765 led to a 9.7% decline in the final 90 minutes.
• RSI and MACD signaled divergences and overbought/oversold extremes, pointing to volatile momentum shifts.
• Bollinger Bands highlighted extreme volatility contractions followed by sharp expansions.
• Turnover spiked over $300k in the final 3 hours amid heavy selling pressure.

Vana/USDC (VANAUSDC) opened at $3.834 on October 9, 2025 at 12:00 ET and closed at $3.843 24 hours later. The pair hit a high of $3.878 and a low of $3.700 during the period, reflecting a volatile session. Total volume across the 24 hours was 2,398.52, with a notional turnover of approximately $8,386,572.22.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a series of key support and resistance levels, notably around $3.820 and $3.850. A bullish engulfing pattern formed around 19:30 ET as the price rebounded from $3.801 to $3.827, followed by a bearish continuation at 03:30 ET with a breakdown to $3.783. Multiple doji and spinning tops were observed in the final 3 hours, particularly between $3.697 and $3.705, signaling indecision and exhaustion in the market.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed just above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating mild bullish momentum. However, the daily chart showed a bearish divergence, with the price closing below all three key averages (50, 100, and 200-day), pointing to a potential continuation of bearish sentiment in the broader timeframe.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a negative crossover in the final hour, reinforcing the bearish breakdown. RSI hit an overbought level of 75 around 01:30 ET, followed by an oversold level of 28 at 15:30 ET, highlighting the extreme price swings. This divergence suggests the market may be correcting itself after prolonged volatility.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands reflected a sharp volatility contraction between 05:00 and 08:00 ET, with price consolidating tightly near the middle band. This was followed by a 90-minute expansion that saw the pair fall from $3.801 to $3.697. The price remained near the lower band during the final 3 hours, indicating bearish pressure and potential for further declines.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly between 03:30 and 04:00 ET during the bearish breakdown, with a 34.41 volume candle signaling heavy selling pressure. Notional turnover also spiked in the same period, reaching a peak of $1.3 million. The divergence between volume and price movement—especially the flat volume during the final 3 hours—suggests a potential exhaustion of short-term momentum.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels highlighted potential support zones around $3.765 (61.8%) and $3.801 (38.2%) during the 15-minute bearish move from $3.855 to $3.705. The price briefly found support at $3.697 but failed to rebound, suggesting these levels may not hold in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent bearish breakdown and oversold RSI reading, a backtesting strategy might trigger a short entry below $3.700 with a stop-loss above $3.765 and a target at $3.620. This aligns with the Fibonacci 61.8% and 78.6% levels. The bearish momentum on the 15-minute chart, combined with weak volume confirmation on the daily scale, makes a low-risk short setup plausible for volatile traders.