Market Overview for Vana/USDC (VANAUSDC) as of 2025-11-06

• VANAUSDC closed down 1.79% at 2.78, amid a volatile 24-hour range.
• Key support appears near 2.75, with resistance forming at 2.82.
• Volume surged during the Asian session but faded as prices drifted lower.

Vana/USDC (VANAUSDC) opened at 2.835 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of 2.858 and a low of 2.74 before closing at 2.78 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-06. Total volume over the 24-hour period reached 8,640.16, with a notional turnover of 24,024.79 USDC.

The price action displayed a bearish bias with a strong pullback after reaching an intraday high near 2.85. A key bearish pattern emerged around 2.822–2.78, where prices stalled and reversed, suggesting a possible breakdown from a short-term consolidation. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged near 2.845, reinforcing the bearish sentiment. A doji formed at 2.756, signaling indecision and potential support at that level.

Moving averages indicate a bearish crossover, with the 20-period and 50-period lines on the 15-minute chart crossing below the price, suggesting short-term downward momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 200-period lines are closely aligned, hinting at a potential trend shift or continuation depending on the strength of the next few days’ moves.

The RSI dipped below 30 twice during the session, suggesting oversold conditions near 2.75, while the MACD crossed below the signal line with a bearish divergence. Bollinger Bands showed a tightening contraction before the drop, which expanded significantly during the Asian session, indicating a breakout in a bearish direction. The price now appears to be trading near the lower band, suggesting potential for a bounce, though the overall bearish momentum remains intact.

Volume spiked during the Asian session, coinciding with the breakdown below 2.82. However, the volume dried up significantly after the 2.75 level, suggesting a lack of buying interest at these levels. The divergence between price and volume during the last leg lower raises concerns about the sustainability of the current bearish trend.

Fibonacci retracements from the recent 15-minute swing (2.858 to 2.74) show key levels at 2.803 (38.2%) and 2.779 (61.8%). Price has tested the 61.8% level and now appears to be consolidating slightly above that. Daily retracements suggest support at 2.73 and resistance at 2.87, based on the broader range over the past week.

The next 24 hours could see renewed bearish pressure if the 2.75 support is not held. A rebound into the 2.77–2.81 range may occur, but without a convincing reversal candle or volume pickup, further downside remains likely. Investors should watch for a breakdown below 2.75 as a signal for more aggressive bearish positioning.

Backtest Hypothesis
To validate the bearish bias and assess trade setups, a backtesting strategy could focus on shorting VANAUSDC when price breaks below key Fibonacci support levels with increasing volume, and a bearish engulfing or doji forms. Entry could be placed on the close of the confirmation candle, with a stop above the recent swing high and a target at the next major support. This approach would aim to capture short-term bearish momentum with defined risk.