Market Overview: Vana/USDC (VANAUSDC) - 2025-11-03

• Price opened at $2.95 and closed at $2.816, down 6.7% over 24 hours
• Sharp decline in the final 3 hours saw $2.852 fall to $2.62, with 15-minute volume spiking to 2,062.7
• Bollinger Bands show widening volatility, while RSI hit oversold territory
• MACD turned bearish with negative divergence in the last 45 minutes
• Volume surged during the final drop but failed to confirm a short-term low

The Vana/USDC pair (ticker: VANAUSDC) opened at $2.95 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $2.816 by the same time the following day. The 24-hour range was $2.95–$3.014, with total traded volume of 10,725.14 and notional turnover of approximately $30,523.94. A strong bearish trend unfolded in the final hours, with price dropping below a key support level, raising concerns about further downside.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period was characterized by a series of bearish formations. A sharp bearish engulfing pattern formed during the 15:45–16:00 ET session, confirming the breakdown below prior support. This was followed by a continuation of selling pressure, with price failing to retest earlier levels. Key resistance levels include $2.92–$2.95, while the current support appears to be testing $2.81–$2.83. A bearish divergence in the RSI and MACD suggests momentum is still on the short side.

Moving Averages & Volatility

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both bearishly aligned, with price trading well below both. Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Bands, expanded significantly during the last 3 hours, with price closing near the lower band. This indicates heightened selling pressure and potential for a bounce or a continuation of the downtrend.

MACD, RSI & Momentum

MACD turned negative in the final 45 minutes of the session, confirming the bearish bias. RSI reached oversold levels near 28 by the end of the 15:45–16:00 ET session, suggesting a potential pause or consolidation. However, this should be taken with caution, as volume during the drop was strong but lacked follow-through. Momentum appears to be favoring the bears in the short term.

Bollinger Bands & Fibonacci Retracements

Bollinger Bands showed increasing width from 14:00 ET onward, signaling rising volatility. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 2.81–2.92 range sits at $2.84, a level that failed to hold in the last 45-minute window. The current price is testing the 38.2% level at $2.79, with a potential support target at $2.71 identified based on the recent swing.

Volume & Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked to over 2,000 in the 15:45–16:00 ET session, confirming the sharp drop in price. Turnover also surged, suggesting meaningful selling activity. The final 3 hours saw the most concentrated bearish pressure, with a clear divergence between the price low and the volume high. This pattern may indicate a short-term bottoming process, though confirmation is still pending.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy based on the Bullish Engulfing pattern was attempted, but data retrieval for the ticker VANAUSDC could not be completed due to an identifier mismatch. This highlights the importance of precise symbol alignment with data sources. The issue may stem from a formatting discrepancy (e.g., VANA-USDC) or the asset not being available on the data provider’s platform. A potential resolution involves verifying the correct symbol format or using an alternative quote (e.g., VANA-USDT if available). Once resolved, the strategy could test the profitability of holding for 3 days after a confirmed Bullish Engulfing pattern. This would provide insight into the asset’s mean-reversion potential.