Market Overview for Vana/USDC (VANAUSDC) as of 2025-09-15

• Vana/USDC traded lower by -9.45% in 24 hours, closing near support at 4.223.
• Volatility spiked after 04:00 ET with a sharp pullback from 4.42 to 4.165.
• Strong bearish momentum evident on RSI and MACD divergence.
• Volume surged to 5146.86 at 11:00 ET amid sharp selloff.
• Key support at 4.129 tested and held, suggesting potential for further downside.

Vana/USDC opened at 4.374 on 2025-09-14 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4.223 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour high was 4.42 and the low was 4.129. Total trading volume reached 13,206.85, with notional turnover at $57,764.24. The market displayed strong bearish momentum amid growing volatility and declining prices.

Structure & Formations

The price action on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish breakdown from the 4.398 level to 4.223, with a sharp correction after a short-lived rally to 4.42. A bearish engulfing pattern was observed at 4.398 and 4.386, signaling strong selling pressure. A doji formed at 4.353, indicating indecision among buyers and sellers. Key support levels at 4.237 and 4.129 were tested, with the latter holding strongly. A further test of 4.129 could determine the next directional move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below the 20-period (4.35) and 50-period (4.37) moving averages, indicating bearish dominance. The 50-period line on the daily chart sat at 4.40, suggesting a bearish bias for the intermediate term. The 200-period line hovered near 4.395, reinforcing the bearish pressure and indicating a possible continuation of the downward trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line with negative divergence, confirming bearish momentum. RSI reached 30 during the selloff, entering oversold territory, which may attract short-term buyers. However, the RSI failed to rebound above 40, indicating lack of conviction in the bullish thesis. A retest of 30 could see a bounce, but without a strong reversal, the bearish trend may continue.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility widened significantly after 04:00 ET with a drop from 4.42 to 4.165, pushing the price to the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. The current price sits near the lower band, suggesting a potential bounce or continuation of the downtrend. A break below 4.129 would signal increased volatility and potential for a deeper correction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 5146.86 at 11:00 ET during the selloff to 4.2, confirming bearish conviction. Total turnover reached $57,764.24, with most activity concentrated during the late-night and early-morning hours. A divergence between price and volume was observed during the rally to 4.42, with relatively low volume, suggesting a potential failure in the bullish attempt. A follow-through selloff with high volume could accelerate the downtrend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from 4.42 to 4.165, key levels at 4.38 (38.2%), 4.33 (61.8%), and 4.28 (50%) have been tested. The 61.8% level at 4.33 has acted as resistance, while the 38.2% level has been a minor support. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level sits at 4.395, which aligns with the 200-period MA and could see further bearish pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on identifying bearish reversal patterns in conjunction with RSI divergence and volume confirmation. A short trade is initiated when a bearish engulfing pattern forms on the 15-minute chart, RSI shows oversold divergence, and volume spikes on the decline. A stop-loss is placed above the recent high, with targets set at the next Fibonacci and key support levels. This strategy would have captured the selloff from 4.42 to 4.2 in the past 24 hours. Given the current market setup, a similar trigger may occur if the price breaks 4.129, with a target at 4.165 and a stop above 4.205.