Market Overview for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT): Volatility and Oversold Momentum

Summary
• Price action saw a sharp 3.6% decline from 0.0274 to 0.0263 on 2026-01-12.
• Volatility expanded mid-session, with a key swing low forming at 0.0259.
• On-balance volume spiked at 0.0264, indicating potential short-term support.
• RSI and MACD signaled oversold conditions, hinting at near-term rebound potential.

At 12:00 ET − 1 on 2026-01-11, Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.0274, hit a high of 0.0275, and a low of 0.0259 before closing at 0.0263 at 12:00 ET on 2026-01-12. The 24-hour volume totaled 19.2 million, with a notional turnover of approximately $511,800.

Structure & Formations

Price tested a key support level near 0.0263-0.0264 multiple times, forming a small base. A large bearish candle at 23:15 ET (0.0264 high to 0.0259 low) suggested a shift in sentiment.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period SMAs on the 5-minute chart both crossed below the price, reinforcing the downward trend. Daily averages (50/100/200) were not directly calculable without full daily data, but the trend appears bearish over the last 48 hours.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative with a narrowing histogram, suggesting fading bearish momentum. RSI dipped into oversold territory near 30, implying potential for a short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility spiked following the 23:15 ET selloff, with price hitting the lower band at 0.0259. The bands were wide, indicating increased market uncertainty.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked near the 0.0264 level, confirming this as a potential support zone. Turnover aligned with the price action, showing no divergence.

Fibonacci Retracements

A 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level lies near 0.0263, aligning with a potential near-term floor. A 61.8% retracement is at 0.0267, which could become a re-entry resistance.

While the oversold RSI and supportive volume suggest a potential bounce from 0.0263–0.0264, a break below this level could trigger further selling. Investors should monitor volume and order flow for signs of reversal or continuation over the next 24 hours.