Market Overview for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) - September 13, 2025

• Price surged to a 24-hour high of $0.0732 before correcting to close near $0.0721
• Bullish momentum picked up after 04:00 ET with a strong rally above 0.0710
• Volatility expanded with a 1.8% price range as volume spiked over 4 million USDT
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed near key support at $0.0706 around 09:30 ET
• RSI moved into overbought territory while price hovered above the 20-period MA

The USUALUSDT pair opened at 0.0674 on 12:00 ET - 1 and surged to a high of 0.0732 before closing at 0.0721 at 12:00 ET on September 13. Total volume reached 19.1 million USDT with a notional turnover of $1.35 million, reflecting heightened interest.

Structure & Formations

The chart showed a clear bullish structure with a key support at 0.0706 and resistance at 0.0725. A strong bullish engulfing pattern formed near the support at 09:30 ET, signaling potential reversal. Price tested the 0.0725 resistance twice but failed to break through, indicating a potential consolidation phase. A doji at 10:45 ET suggested indecision near 0.0722, and the 0.0721 close appeared to establish a new equilibrium.

Support / Resistance Levels

Key support levels observed at 0.0706 and 0.0710, with 0.0725 as the critical resistance. A break above 0.0725 could trigger further momentum, while a drop below 0.0706 would signal a bearish shift.

Moving Averages

The 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA near 0.0710 at 05:15 ET, signaling a bullish crossover. Price remained above the 20 MA for most of the session, indicating strong near-term momentum. Daily MAs (50/100/200) showed a flat to slightly bullish bias, suggesting longer-term buyers remain active.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory at 04:00 ET, aligning with the bullish price move. RSI reached 72 by 10:30 ET, entering overbought territory, which could trigger a near-term correction. However, the bullish divergence between price and RSI at 08:30 ET suggested strength in the rally.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly after 04:00 ET, pushing the upper band to 0.0735 and the lower band to 0.0702. Price traded above the 20-period MA and hovered near the upper Bollinger Band for most of the session, indicating strong momentum and a potential overbought condition.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 4.17 million USDT at 14:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp sell-off from 0.0722 to 0.0712. Notional turnover reached $1.35 million, with price and volume aligning on key moves, particularly the 09:30 ET bullish engulfing pattern. A divergence at 15:00 ET suggested caution.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels showed the 0.0721 level as the 61.8% retracement from the 0.0674 low to 0.0732 high. Price consolidation at this level indicated a potential pause before the next directional move. The 50% retracement at 0.0706 acted as a critical support, confirmed by the bullish engulfing pattern.

Backtest Hypothesis

The strategy outlined in the backtest involves entering long positions on bullish engulfing patterns forming near key support levels, with a stop-loss placed below the engulfing pattern's low. The 09:30 ET pattern near 0.0706 appears to align with this setup, particularly as it coincided with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and a strong bounce from the Bollinger Band. If confirmed with volume above the 20-period average and RSI above 50, this pattern could have historically led to a favorable risk-reward ratio in similar crypto pairs.

Price may continue to consolidate above 0.0721 before a next directional move, but volatility and RSI suggest a pullback could be imminent. Investors should remain cautious of a potential breakdown below 0.0706, which could trigger a retest of earlier supports.