Market Overview for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) – October 8, 2025

• • •
• Price consolidated between 0.0503 and 0.0514 after a sharp 6% drop from 0.0518 to 0.0503
• Momentum remained neutral with RSI fluctuating between 45–55, no overbought or oversold conditions
• Volatility contracted after 04:00 ET, with Bollinger Bands narrowing and trading range compressing
• Volume spiked to 3.3M at 08:45 ET, coinciding with a strong bullish reversal into 0.0513
• No decisive reversal patterns formed; most candles ended indecisive or with small bodies

At 12:00 ET–1, Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.051, reached a high of 0.0518, a low of 0.0501, and closed at 0.0504 by 12:00 ET. Total volume over the 24-hour period was 70,748,082.3, with a notional turnover of ~$3.6 million (calculated using 64,000,000 average volume × 0.0507 mean price). The pair showed a slow, grinding decline followed by a partial rebound in the final 6 hours.

Structure & Formations

Price remained range-bound within a channel from 0.0503 (support) to 0.0514 (resistance) for most of the day. A morning session breakdown below 0.0507 was rejected, leading to a consolidation phase around the 0.0504–0.0507 range. A small bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 08:45 ET, coinciding with increased volume and a sharp rebound into 0.0513, suggesting short-term bearish exhaustion. A long lower shadow at 04:15 ET (0.0503) marked a key support level that held through most of the day.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed in the morning, with the 20-SMA briefly surpassing the 50-SMA, signaling a short-lived bullish crossover that failed to produce a sustainable rally. On the daily chart, the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages remained aligned in a downtrend, with the 200-day at ~0.0519 acting as a distant overhead resistance. The 50-day MA (~0.0512) capped the morning rebound, indicating a bearish bias over the short term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a mild bearish divergence in the morning session, with price dropping below 0.0507 while the histogram remained flat. A positive histogram emerged at 08:45 ET as price surged, but it quickly faded. RSI remained in the mid-40s for most of the day, indicating a lack of directional momentum. A brief overbought spike at 02:30 ET (RSI 59) failed to produce a follow-through, and price reverted to the 0.0505–0.0508 range.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted sharply after 04:00 ET, with the 20-period midline narrowing below 0.0506, indicating reduced volatility and potential for a breakout. Price traded within the middle third of the bands for much of the day, with a brief spike to the upper band at 08:45 ET. The lower band at 0.0501 held as a critical support zone, which may become a focal point for further bearish tests.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained elevated during the morning sell-off (1.3M at 03:30 ET), but dropped to under 400k during the midday consolidation. A sharp volume spike at 08:45 ET coincided with a bullish reversal into 0.0513, reinforcing the breakout’s legitimacy. However, the lack of sustained follow-through volume suggests the move may be short-lived. Turnover mirrored volume patterns, with a 6.5% increase in the final 3 hours.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 0.0518–0.0503 swing, the 38.2% retracement at 0.0512 and 61.8% at 0.0509 provided key resistance levels. Price touched 0.0512–0.0513 twice in the afternoon but failed to hold above 0.0510. A breakdown below 0.0503 (100% level) could trigger a test of the 0.0500 psychological floor.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve shorting on a close below the 20-period SMA with confirmation from a bearish MACD crossover, and exiting on a close above the 50-period SMA. The morning sell-off and 04:15 ET low at 0.0503 provided a valid entry point, with a stop above 0.0508 and target at 0.0495. A long bias could be triggered on a close above 0.0513, with the 200-day MA acting as a distant ceiling. This strategy would aim to capture range-bound moves while managing risk with tight stops.