Market Overview for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) – October 28, 2025

• Price declined from 0.0335 to 0.0321 over 24 hours, forming bearish momentum with increasing bearish volume in the latter half.
• Key resistance at 0.0333–0.0334 failed, while support found a temporary floor at 0.0315–0.0318 during overnight consolidation.
• Volatility expanded through early evening, with a 15-minute candle at 0.0334–0.0334 showing a bullish continuation before reversal.
• Notional turnover exceeded $10 million, but price and volume diverged slightly during the midday consolidation.
• A deep pullback into 0.0314–0.0318 may indicate oversold territory, though without a clear bullish follow-through.

At 12:00 ET–1, Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.0326 and closed at 0.0321 by 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.0335 and a low of 0.0314. Total 24-hour volume reached 11.4 million units, and notional turnover exceeded $3.6 million, reflecting moderate interest despite declining price action.

Structure & Formations

The price action over the past 24 hours showed a bearish breakdown from 0.0333–0.0334, with multiple attempts to reclaim those levels failing after 19:00 ET. A key bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 19:15 ET, signaling a potential trend reversal. Later, a doji at 0.0317–0.0318 near the close of the overnight session suggested short-term indecision. The 0.0315–0.0318 range appears to have functioned as a temporary support floor, with bounces observed multiple times.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have been in a bearish crossover for the past 6 hours, reinforcing the downward bias. The 50-period MA currently sits at 0.0325, while the 20-period MA is at 0.0321, both below the current close. This aligns with the bearish momentum observed in the price action.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram showed a bearish divergence during the overnight session, with the line crossing below the signal line near 0.0318. RSI levels dipped below 30 at 02:30 ET, suggesting oversold conditions, though no sustained reversal followed. RSI has remained in neutral to slightly oversold territory since 06:00 ET, indicating a lack of significant buying pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Price has spent the majority of the session within the Bollinger Bands, with the lowest dip into 0.0314–0.0318 reaching near the lower band. Volatility expanded between 18:00 and 20:00 ET, with the bands widening. Since then, volatility has contracted slightly, but price remains near the lower band, suggesting further consolidation or a potential rebound could be in play.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early bearish breakout from 0.0333–0.0334, with over 600k units traded in the 19:00–20:00 ET window. However, volume has since decreased, with the 05:00–07:00 ET period showing relatively low activity despite moderate price movement. This divergence suggests weakening conviction in the bearish trend, potentially setting the stage for a short-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 15-minute swing from 0.0314 to 0.0335, the 38.2% level (~0.0326) and 61.8% level (~0.0321) are currently relevant. The 61.8% level has coincided with the current price action, suggesting a potential pause in the bearish move. If the trend continues past 0.0315, the 78.6% level (~0.0311) could become the next area of interest.

Backtest Hypothesis

The absence of RSI data for USUALUSDT highlights a potential limitation in applying standard technical strategies to this pair. In the absence of RSI readings, a modified 3-day hold strategy using 15-minute candle momentum (as observed in the 19:00–20:00 ET and 02:00–04:00 ET windows) could provide insights into potential short-term reversals. However, the lack of confirmatory RSI data makes it challenging to assess overbought or oversold conditions accurately. A viable alternative would be to use an established symbol with accessible RSI data for backtesting, or to provide a complete dataset for USUALUSDT.