Market Overview: Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) – November 10, 2025

Summary
• Price declined from 0.0346 to 0.0328 on strong volume, forming a bearish trend.
• Volatility expanded as price dropped 0.54% below key support at 0.0337.
• RSI indicated oversold conditions, while volume surged during the breakdown.

Opening Narrative

Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.0344 (12:00 ET – 1), reached a high of 0.0347 and a low of 0.0324, closing at 0.0329 (12:00 ET). Total volume was 13,415,848.0 units, with a turnover of $450,955 (based on 0.0329 average close).

Structure & Formations

Price formation over the 24-hour period displayed a strong bearish trend, particularly after 09:00 ET when a large bearish engulfing pattern formed near the 0.0338–0.0335 level. This pattern confirmed a breakdown from the 0.034–0.0343 consolidation zone. A subsequent breakdown at 0.0337 marked a new swing low at 0.0324, with a 0.0024 (0.54%) price drop following this key support break.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 and 50-period moving averages crossed lower, reinforcing bearish momentum. Daily MAs (50, 100, 200) remain in a descending order, suggesting medium-term bearish bias with no immediate reversal signals.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed a bearish crossover after 09:00 ET, confirming the breakdown phase. RSI reached oversold territory (below 30) by 16:45 ET, but failed to form a bullish divergence, suggesting the bearish trend could continue.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly after the 09:00 ET breakdown, with price settling well below the lower band for most of the latter half of the session, indicating heightened volatility and bearish exhaustion.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to 2.86 million at 16:45 ET, coinciding with the breakdown at 0.0332, and remained elevated until the close. Notional turnover confirmed the bearish bias with no divergence between volume and price.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price tested the 61.8% retracement level at 0.0337, which then failed to hold, leading to a deeper drop. Daily Fibonacci levels from the 0.034–0.0334 swing highlighted potential support at 0.0332 and 0.0327—both now showing signs of being near-term lows.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential strategy using the bearish engulfing pattern identified at 09:00 ET could open a short or long position at the next session’s open. A stop-loss at 0.0337 and take-profit at 0.0346 would cap risk and reward. Based on the recent breakdown and the oversold RSI, a bearish setup appears more probable, but confirmation of the engulfing pattern as a reversal or continuation signal is key. The current price action aligns with the described conditions, making this an attractive candidate for a backtest using historical data from 2022 to 2025.