Market Overview for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT)

Summary
• Price traded in a narrow range early before surging past 0.026 by 04:45 ET.
• Volatility spiked sharply in the early morning, with a large bullish 5-minute candle confirming strength.
• RSI moved into overbought territory post-07:45 ET, suggesting short-term exhaustion.
• A key resistance at 0.0262 was tested multiple times with mixed results.
• Notional turnover surged over $64,000 at 07:45 ET, signaling increased institutional interest.

At 12:00 ET on December 27, 2025, Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.0256 and reached a high of 0.0266 during the 24-hour period, while the low was 0.0255. The price closed at 0.0259. Total volume for the day was 9,202,717.2, with a notional turnover of $245,830. The pair showed increasing volatility and momentum in the early hours, with a sharp surge around 07:45 ET.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bullish breakout above 0.026, supported by a strong 5-minute bullish candle at 02:45 ET. A key resistance level around 0.0262 was tested multiple times without a decisive close above it, while 0.0255 acted as a strong support level, especially during the early morning hours. A potential bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 05:30 ET, signaling caution. No significant doji or reversal patterns were observed, but the price appeared to consolidate around 0.026 after a sharp rally.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 5-minute chart were closely aligned, showing a generally bullish bias in the morning hours. By the late morning, the 50-period line crossed above the 20-period line, reinforcing the uptrend. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period lines remained closely grouped, indicating a continuation of the longer-term sideways consolidation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bullish in the early morning, confirming the upward momentum seen in the 02:45–04:45 ET timeframe. However, by 07:45 ET, the RSI had moved into overbought territory (above 70), suggesting short-term exhaustion and a possible pullback. The MACD remained positive but began to narrow, indicating waning momentum as the day progressed.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded during the morning surge, reflecting heightened volatility. The price peaked near the upper band at 07:45 ET, then retracted slightly toward the mid-band by late morning. Volatility appeared to contract slightly in the afternoon, but the price remained within the bands, suggesting a continuation of the consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was relatively low early in the session but spiked significantly in the 02:45–07:45 ET window, especially around the 07:45 ET 5-minute candle, which accounted for over 4 million in volume. Notional turnover also surged during this period, reaching nearly $64,500, confirming the strong buying interest. The price and turnover aligned well during the breakout, suggesting institutional participation.

Fibonacci Retracements

A recent 5-minute swing from 0.0255 to 0.0266 was retraced back to the 0.0261 level by late morning. The 61.8% level (0.0261) acted as a key area of consolidation, and price struggled to break above it. On the daily chart, the 38.2% level at 0.026 appears to be a short-term ceiling, with potential for a test of the 61.8% level in the coming days if the trend continues.

The pair appears to have found a short-term ceiling around 0.0262, with mixed price action suggesting potential for a pullback or consolidation. Traders may watch for a breakout or reversal near this level in the next 24 hours. As always, increased volatility or a breakdown below 0.026 could signal a deeper correction, so caution is warranted.