Market Overview for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT): 24-Hour Technical Breakdown

• Price surged to 0.0315, breaking above key resistance at 0.0302–0.0303.
• Volume surged in the final 6 hours, signaling strong accumulation.
• MACD and RSI show positive momentum, suggesting bullish follow-through.
• Bollinger Bands show expansion, indicating rising volatility.
• Fibonacci retracement suggests 0.0302–0.0303 is a critical psychological level.

Opening Narrative

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-31, Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.0296 and closed at 0.0313 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-01, after hitting a high of 0.0316 and a low of 0.0287. The 24-hour total volume was approximately 62.1 million USDT, with a notional turnover of $1.93 million, indicating increased liquidity and investor participation.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute candlestick pattern shows a clear bullish trend, particularly after the 08:15 ET candle (0.0303 open, 0.0306 close). This candle marked the beginning of a strong upward move, breaking above the 0.0302–0.0303 resistance area. The pattern includes a bullish engulfing formation and a strong breakout candle, indicating a reversal from bearish to bullish momentum. A notable bearish divergence occurred briefly around 06:30–07:00 ET, but was quickly absorbed by the upward thrust.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are aligned bullish, with the 20 MA crossing above the 50 MA (a golden cross) around 08:00 ET. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA (0.0295) is below the 200-period MA (0.0292), but the price is trading above both, suggesting a short-term bullish bias against a longer-term neutral trend. The 100-period MA at 0.0293 has also been successfully tested and retested.

MACD & RSI

The MACD has shown a strong positive divergence with the histogram expanding after 08:15 ET, confirming the bullish breakout. RSI is currently at 58, moving away from the overbought threshold (70), indicating room for further upward movement. The RSI crossed above 50 at 07:30 ET, suggesting a shift from bearish to bullish momentum. A bearish signal would be a drop below 50 in the coming hours, though this is unlikely without a reversal candle.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly in the past 6 hours, reflecting increased volatility. Price is currently trading near the upper band, with the middle band at 0.0308. A sustained break above the upper band (0.0314–0.0316) would confirm a continuation of the bullish trend, while a retest of the lower band (0.0297–0.0295) could offer a low-risk entry for longs.

Volume & Turnover

The final 6 hours of the 24-hour period saw a sharp increase in volume, particularly between 08:15 and 10:00 ET, with the largest single candle (10:45–11:00 ET) showing a 359,677.1 volume spike. Turnover also peaked during this time, confirming the price action with strong liquidity. No significant price-volume divergence was observed during the upward move, indicating strong conviction from buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent swing from 0.0287 (low) to 0.0316 (high), the 61.8% level is at 0.0307, which was briefly tested but not broken. This level could act as a support on a pullback. The 38.2% retracement level is at 0.0299, which was already tested and held earlier in the day. The 0.0302–0.0303 zone aligns closely with the 50% level, reinforcing its significance as a psychological resistance.

Backtest Hypothesis

To evaluate the historical effectiveness of using a Bullish Engulfing pattern with a take-profit at ~8% as a trading strategy, the following backtest parameters are proposed:
- Ticker: USUALUSDT (Binance-style symbol)
- Entry Signal: Every Bullish Engulfing pattern observed between 2022-01-01 and 2025-11-01.
- Exit Rule: Close the position when price rises 8% from entry or when the 0.0302–0.0303 resistance is breached.
- Risk Controls: No stop-loss, max-hold-days, or max-drawdown constraints, unless specified.

This strategy leverages the price action and momentum signals analyzed above—specifically, the strength of the breakout at 0.0302–0.0303 and the confirmation by RSI, MACD, and volume. The 8% take-profit aligns with the Fibonacci and Bollinger Band levels seen in recent swings. The backtest will validate whether such a pattern, when paired with a fixed take-profit, could have yielded profitable results historically.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Caveat

Looking ahead, USUALUSDT may continue upward, with 0.0314–0.0316 as the next resistance. A breakout above this zone could extend the move to 0.0320, while a retest of 0.0302–0.0303 could consolidate gains. However, a pullback below 0.0300 may signal a short-term correction, so investors should remain cautious about overbought conditions and monitor volume for signs of exhaustion.