Market Overview: Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) 24-Hour Summary

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Summary
• Price declined sharply from 0.0681 to 0.0558 over 24 hours, forming a bearish trend with low volatility.
• Key support at 0.0560–0.0565 and resistance at 0.0662–0.0667 emerged from repeated candlestick rejections.
• High volume spikes observed during the 6:15–6:45 AM ET breakdown to 0.0579, confirming bearish momentum.
• RSI remains oversold (around 25), suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• MACD divergence noted, with negative histogram expansion aligning with price decline.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-09-21, USUALUSDT opened at 0.0677 and reached a high of 0.0681 before declining to a 24-hour low of 0.0557 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. The pair closed at 0.0559 with total volume of 92,602,360.49999999 and turnover of 5,208.54999999. The sharp bearish move suggests sustained selling pressure across multiple sessions, particularly after a massive volume spike of 33,820,561.5 units confirmed a breakdown below 0.0602.

Structure & Formations

Price formed multiple bearish patterns including a bearish engulfing pattern at 0.0663–0.0659, and a bearish harami around 0.0664–0.0658. A significant bearish wedge formed between 0.0681 and 0.0579 was confirmed at 0.0579–0.0564. Key support levels at 0.0560–0.0565 and 0.0555–0.0557 are now critical for near-term stability, with 0.0565–0.0568 as potential short-term resistance.

Moving Averages and Momentum

The 15-minute chart shows 20-period and 50-period moving averages in bearish alignment, with price well below both. On the daily timeframe, 50/100/200 SMA lines are also aligned bearishly, with the 50-period line acting as dynamic resistance. MACD remains bearish with negative divergence, while the RSI is in oversold territory (~25), suggesting limited upside unless buyers step in above 0.0568.

Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci Levels

Bollinger Bands have narrowed significantly during the afternoon hours (ET), indicating a potential consolidation phase before a breakout. Price is currently near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level (0.0564) from the 0.0681–0.0536 swing. A breakdown below 0.0555 could target the 61.8% level at ~0.0545, with a possible retest of 0.0560–0.0565 on a rebound.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Turnover spiked during the 6:15–6:30 AM ET session, with the 33,820,561.5 volume bar confirming a breakdown below 0.0602. This aligns with a sharp drop in price to 0.0579. The volume-to-price divergence during the 11:30–12:00 PM ET consolidation suggests reduced bearish conviction. However, the continued volume expansion below key levels supports the bearish case for at least one more leg down before a potential bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy involves entering short positions when price breaks below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level with increasing volume and RSI below 30. Stops are placed above the most recent high (e.g., 0.0566–0.0568), and targets are set at 61.8% and the prior swing low. This approach was tested on the 0.0681–0.0536 range and showed consistent bearish confirmation via divergences in MACD and RSI.