Market Overview: Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis (2025-10-09)

• Price declined 6.6% from 0.0513 to 0.047, with bearish momentum gaining strength in late ET hours.
• RSI approached oversold levels and MACD signaled bearish divergence as volume surged during the selloff.
• Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening and price testing lower band support twice.
• Key support emerged near 0.0465–0.0470, while resistance retested at 0.0480–0.0485.

Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.0513 on October 8 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.0529, fell to a low of 0.0465, and closed at 0.047 on October 9 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 69.6 million, while notional turnover hit $3.35 million during the 24-hour period.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart exhibited a strong bearish bias with a descending pattern and key support tested at 0.0465–0.0470. A long bearish candle on October 9 at 14:45 ET closed at 0.0467 after a sharp drop from 0.0472. The formation resembled a classic inside bar pattern, confirming bearish exhaustion. Resistance levels emerged at 0.0480–0.0485 and 0.0490–0.0495, with the latter showing rejection during a failed rally.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs showed a clear bearish crossover, with the price closing significantly below both lines. The daily chart revealed that the 50-period SMA is at 0.0483 and the 200-period at 0.0496, suggesting a bearish trend remains intact unless a strong reversal occurs above 0.0485.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned bearish with a negative crossover and histogram expansion, indicating increasing bearish momentum. RSI approached 30, signaling oversold conditions, though a bearish divergence suggested a continuation of the downtrend rather than a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly as volatility increased, with price testing the lower band multiple times. The last close at 0.047 sat near the lower band, reinforcing the idea that the pair is in a consolidation phase at the lower end of a bearish channel.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the selloff on October 9, particularly in the 14:45–15:00 ET window, coinciding with a sharp drop from 0.0472 to 0.0467. Turnover confirmed the volume spikes, suggesting meaningful bearish participation. However, volume remained mixed during failed attempts to rally above 0.0480, indicating limited bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 0.0513–0.0465 move, key levels include 0.0476 (38.2%) and 0.0470 (61.8%). The 61.8% level held as support during the last test, suggesting it could be a short-term floor if the trend continues. A break below 0.0465 would extend the decline to 0.0457 (78.6%).

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy would involve entering short positions on a break below the 61.8% Fibonacci level (0.0470) with a stop above 0.0480 and a target at 0.0465, leveraging the confirmed bearish divergence in MACD and RSI. A trailing stop could be applied after a 1.5% move in favor of the trade to capture extended bearish momentum. This approach aligns with the observed price structure and indicator behavior, providing a probabilistic edge in a high-volatility environment.