Market Overview: Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) - 24-Hour Analysis for 2025-10-03

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Summary
• USUALUSDT tested resistance at 0.055, reaching 0.0559 before retracing.
• Volume surged during the 05:15–06:00 ET window, confirming strength in the rally.
• RSI approached overbought territory, suggesting potential pullback risks.
• Bollinger Bands expanded during the morning, reflecting increased volatility.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at the 0.055 level, signaling short-term buying pressure.

At 12:00 ET on 2025-10-03, Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.053, hit a high of 0.0559, a low of 0.053, and closed at 0.0544. The pair traded with a 24-hour volume of 37,516,087.5 units and a total turnover of $1,998,275.74. Price action was characterized by a mid-day rally and a late consolidation phase.

The 15-minute chart shows a key support at 0.0542–0.0543 and resistance at 0.0555–0.0557. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at 0.055, indicating a temporary shift in sentiment. A doji formed at 0.0544 around 10:45 ET, suggesting indecision. The 50-period and 20-period moving averages intersected near 0.0545, indicating a potential equilibrium point. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMAs remain close, showing a lack of strong directional bias.

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The RSI reached 68–69, hinting at overbought conditions, while the MACD crossed above the signal line during the mid-day rally, reinforcing bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands widened as the price moved from the lower band to the upper band, indicating increased volatility. A retest of the 0.055 level appears to be a key near-term catalyst. The 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels align closely with key support and resistance levels, offering strategic entry and exit points for traders.

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Backtest Hypothesis
The provided backtesting strategy involves a multi-timeframe approach where a long position is entered when the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart cross above, price action confirms a bullish pattern (e.g., bullish engulfing or a strong close near the high), and the RSI is in the 50–65 range. A stop-loss is placed below the nearest swing low, and the take-profit is set at the 38.2–61.8% Fibonacci levels.

This hypothesis aligns well with today’s action, particularly during the 05:15–06:45 ET window when all three conditions were met: a positive crossover, a bullish engulfing pattern, and a RSI in the 58–65 range. A hypothetical trade placed at this time would have captured a ~0.0012 move before consolidation. The strategy appears robust under current volatility levels but may require refinement during low-volume periods.

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