Market Overview: Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) – 2025-11-08

Summary
• Price fluctuated between 0.0332 and 0.0364 during 24 hours.
• RSI suggests overbought and oversold conditions in short-term swings.
• Volatility expanded mid-session before contraction in final hours.
• Volume spiked during key 0.035–0.036 range, confirming bullish consolidation.
• Final 15-minute candle closed near 0.0334, showing bearish reversal pressure.

The 24-hour price action for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) saw an open at 0.0345 at 12:00 ET–1, a high of 0.0364, a low of 0.0332, and a close of 0.0334 at 12:00 ET. Total volume was 32,207,644.7 units with a notional turnover of $1,055,666.80, highlighting moderate but directional trading pressure.

On the 15-minute chart, key support levels were identified at 0.0332 and 0.0336, both tested with bearish engulfing patterns observed during the 0.0339–0.0334 consolidation. Resistance levels at 0.0348 and 0.0356 showed failed attempts to break above, with the latter forming a bearish divergence in the final four candles. A notable bearish harami occurred at 06:00 ET as the price hovered within the range of the prior candle, signaling a potential reversal.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a flattening trend as the price approached the key 0.0334 support level, with the 50-period line crossing above the 20-period at around 05:00 ET, indicating a potential bearish momentum shift. The MACD crossed into negative territory in the final hours, confirming the bearish bias. RSI oscillated between overbought (70+) and oversold (30−) thresholds, suggesting heightened volatility in short-term trading.

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion between 18:00 and 22:00 ET, followed by a contraction toward the end of the 24-hour window, indicating reduced volatility. The price closed just below the 20-period moving average at 0.0334, within the lower band of the Bollinger channel, reinforcing the bearish outlook. Fibonacci retracement levels from the 0.0332–0.0364 swing suggested key levels at 0.0347 (38.2%) and 0.0354 (61.8%) as potential psychological and order-block clusters.

Backtest Hypothesis
The attempted backtesting of an “RSI Oversold (<30) then hold 1 day” strategy for USUALUSDT encountered a data limitation, as the symbol could not be located in the database. This suggests the pair may not be actively traded or recognized by the data source. To proceed, confirmation of the correct ticker symbol or providing the OHLCV data for USUALUSDT in a supported format (CSV/JSON) would be required. Alternatively, switching to a similar and supported pair could facilitate the backtesting process without altering the core strategy. A potential workaround might include using a 15-minute RSI oscillator with a 14-period setting and applying it to the provided OHLCV data to simulate the strategy manually.
The market appears to be positioning for a bearish continuation in the near term, particularly if the 0.0332 support level holds. However, a rebound above 0.0336 could reverse this bias, so investors should monitor order flow and volume confirmation at key levels. Volatility remains moderate, but divergence in the RSI and MACD suggests caution for any new long positions.

The MACD and RSI indicators highlight key overbought and oversold conditions during the 24-hour period, with RSI reaching oversold levels around 0.0332 and overbought during the 0.0352–0.0357 consolidation. MACD turning negative in the final hours suggests a bearish momentum shift, while the volume profile shows increased selling pressure as the price approached the lower Bollinger Band. The 20-period moving average currently sits at 0.0335, with the 50-period at 0.0337, both suggesting a potential continuation of the bearish trend.