Market Overview for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) – 2025-10-14

• Price surged to 0.0365 before consolidating near 0.0326 amid high volume.
• Strong bearish momentum in the latter half of the day, with RSI trending oversold.
• Bollinger Bands widened early, indicating rising volatility before a late contraction.
• Divergence noted between price and turnover after 00:00 ET, signaling potential reversal risk.
• Key support levels at 0.0330 and 0.0320 appear critical for near-term direction.

The USUAL/USDT pair opened at 0.0338 (12:00 ET−1), peaked at 0.0365, and closed at 0.0326 as of 12:00 ET on October 14. Total volume across the 24-hour period reached 73,963,787.4 units, with notional turnover of approximately $2,462,331.67. The price action was characterized by a sharp bullish rally into the early evening, followed by a bearish reversal as selling pressure intensified after 00:00 ET.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a strong bearish engulfing pattern from 00:00 to 00:15 ET, signaling a potential shift in momentum. A key support level emerged at 0.0320, where price found a floor twice during the night, with the second test at 05:45 ET showing a bearish reversal. Resistance levels at 0.0335 and 0.0345 were tested multiple times during the rally, with each breakout failing to hold. A doji formed at 02:00 ET near 0.0350, indicating indecision in the market.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly (death cross) around 00:00 ET, aligning with the price drop. The 50-period MA remained above the 100- and 200-period MAs for the daily chart, suggesting a potential bearish trend continuation. However, the 20-period MA showed some bullish divergence in the late afternoon, hinting at potential short-term rebounds.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned bearish in the early morning, crossing below the signal line with declining histogram volume, confirming bearish momentum. RSI hit oversold territory around 0.30 in the early hours of October 14, with readings dipping below 30 for nearly an hour. A potential bear trap was indicated when RSI rebounded without significant price follow-through after 04:00 ET, suggesting continued downward pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the afternoon, with volatility peaking as price tested the upper band multiple times. By late evening, bands began to contract, with price hovering near the lower band, indicating a potential consolidation phase. The late contraction suggests a period of consolidation, potentially setting up for a breakout or breakdown in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the early part of the afternoon as price surged toward the high of the session, with turnover peaking at 0.0365. However, volume declined significantly in the late evening and overnight, despite the continued price fall, indicating possible exhaustion among sellers. A divergence between price and turnover became apparent after 00:00 ET, raising questions about the sustainability of the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels were applied to the major swing from 0.0326 to 0.0365. The 61.8% retracement level at 0.0344 acted as a key resistance zone during the afternoon, while the 38.2% level at 0.0348 failed to hold. On the bearish leg, the 50% retracement at 0.0344 showed some support before the price fell further. The 61.8% level at 0.0330 was critical in the overnight selloff, holding price twice before the final descent to 0.0326.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtesting strategy hinges on confirming a reversal setup using the bearish engulfing pattern observed around 00:00 ET. This pattern was preceded by a strong bullish phase and followed by a clear breakdown in RSI and MACD. A potential entry could be placed short at 0.0327 with a stop above 0.0335 (the recent swing high) and a target near 0.0313—based on the 61.8% Fibonacci extension from the 0.0326–0.0365 swing. This setup would be best applied with a 15-minute chart, using RSI and Bollinger Bands to confirm volatility and momentum exhaustion before execution.