Market Overview for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) – 2025-10-05 12:00 ET

• The price of Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) rose from 0.0522 to 0.0541 over 24 hours, with volatility peaking after 03:00 ET.
• A bullish breakout above 0.0540 was confirmed, supported by increasing volume and strong momentum on the RSI.
• A strong intraday consolidation phase began around 15:00 ET, signaling potential exhaustion of the rally.
• Notional turnover surged to $1.15M in the early morning, outpacing the previous day’s volume by 30%.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at 0.0534, suggesting a near-term bullish bias amid thinning bearish pressure.

Market Summary

The 24-hour session for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.0522 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0541 on 2025-10-05 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of 0.0555 and a low of 0.0520, with total trading volume of 198,065,119.74 and notional turnover of approximately $10,387,832.

The price action showed a clear shift in sentiment from bearish to bullish during the early morning hours, with a strong rally from the 0.0534 level. The 15-minute chart revealed a series of bullish engulfing patterns and a piercing line structure around 0.0534-0.0536. This was accompanied by increasing volume and a sharp rise in the RSI from oversold territory to neutral ground.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels were identified around 0.0534 and 0.0528, with the latter being a confluence of a bullish engulfing pattern and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement from the 0.0520–0.0555 swing. Resistance levels appear at 0.0547 (Fibonacci 61.8%) and 0.0555 (swing high). A doji formed at 0.0551–0.0552, suggesting short-term indecision following the sharp rise.

Bollinger Bands widened significantly after 03:00 ET, indicating rising volatility. Price remained within the upper band for much of the session, suggesting strong bullish conviction during the upward move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed positively around 03:30 ET, forming a bullish signal. Price traded above both for the remainder of the session. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA is at 0.0533, just below the close, and the 200-period MA sits at 0.0529. A crossover above both would confirm a stronger bullish trend.

The MACD turned positive after 02:45 ET, with the histogram expanding as the rally unfolded. This aligns with the RSI crossing above 50 and approaching overbought territory by 05:00 ET.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged past 3 million units at 02:45 ET, coinciding with a breakout above 0.0540. Notional turnover spiked to $1.15M during this phase, confirming the bullish breakout. A divergence between volume and price occurred later in the session as the price consolidated between 0.0540 and 0.0543 with declining volume, hinting at a potential reversal or consolidation phase.

Looking ahead, a continuation of the rally may require sustained volume and a break above 0.0547. A failure to hold 0.0538 could result in a pullback toward 0.0534, where a bullish engulfing pattern offers strong support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the formation of a bullish engulfing pattern at 0.0534 and the sharp rise in RSI above 50, a potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions at 0.0536 with a stop loss at 0.0532 and a take profit at 0.0545. This setup would aim to capture the continuation of the bullish breakout seen during the 02:45–04:30 ET window. The volume surge and MACD expansion suggest strong conviction during this phase, making it a favorable entry window.